WUHAN FLU [CORONAVIRUS] UPDATE: January 19,2021. I've been away from blogging the last two weeks, mostly in disgust with the increasing -- and virulent -- insanity of the political Left and the total spinelessness of the political Right.

However ... flu season is upon us, and here are some thoughts on flu -- both seasonal and the Wuhan variety. Let's start the discussion with this chart taken from the CDC's very own web site (it's a bit dated, since I copied it a couple of weeks ago for another post, and am unwilling to further pollute myself by going back for an update:

This is what a flu season looks like -- a spike, starting a few weeks ago (black triangles) and lasting about 16 weeks (4 months -- December, January, February, and March).

This is what we can reasonably expect for the next several months. The seasonal flu (although the CDC refuses to track the flu -- especially now) and COVID-19 infections will rise dramatically because we're both indoors and in more crowded spaces, the number of deaths will increase, and the death rate will remain stable.

I've been tracking the coronavirus data daily since mid-March of 2000. Here's the most recent update on deaths since I started tracking:

The data is consistent with both prior posts and my expectations above: infections are increasing rapidly; deaths are increasing commiserate; and the death rate (not shown in this chart) remains stable and low.

Now for some thoughts on the entire pandemic. First note three things:

(1) The first peak in April dates to when the coronavirus was first identified in the U.S. and spreading rapidly, so much so that according to news reports at the time the virus would expose (not infect, but expose) everyone in the U.S. by mid-year. That's my estimate, based on data published back in April.

(2) The initial lockdown (in Georgia, it was for the month of April) had no long-term effect as indicated above by the continuing growth curve. In fact, it was supposed to only keep hospitals from being overwhelmed. Remember that? It never happened; hospitals in Georgia and elsewhere were never overwhelmed. At most the lockdowns may have delayed the growth of coronavirus infections; they clearly did not stop it.

(3) The number of deaths began to rise again with the onset of flu season -- as expected -- in November. It isn't clear -- yet -- but the number of deaths seems to be stabilizing

Here's the death rate (calculated as a percentage of confirmed and total cases) since testing became more routine in May. It has exponentially dropped (trend line) from about 5% to 1.6% of confirmed cases today. The data for total cases has been steadily about 1/10th of confirmed cases. And as predicted above, the rates have continued to decline exponentially (i.e., remain stable).

So, to me at least, here's the bottom line.

COVID arrived in the U.S. in early 2020, maybe as far back as late 2019. It spread rapidly, probably exposing the entire U.S. population by mid-year if it was as infectious as claimed by our esteemed HealthScare^TM professionals.

The initial death rate was high, as might be expected, until the population adapted (meaning developed an immune response) to the new threat. Most (~90%) of the population simply ignored it (were preemptively immune); some (~10%) defeated it (i.e., got ill and recovered), and a very few (~ 0.1%) got ill and died.

Finally, an almost impossible -- and quite probably irrelevant -- short comparison of COVID-19 with seasonal flu. I say that based on the fact that data sets are quite honestly not directly comparable.

From the CDC website today, the 10-year average number of deaths from seasonal flu cases is about 35,900. Symptomatic illnesses, medical visits, and hospitalizations are categorized and estimated, not tracked, and it is unknown if the categories mutually exclusive. Moreover CDC estimates that something like 85% to 90% of seasonal flu cases are never reported. Based on their data, the CDC estimates a death rate of ~0.134% over the last 10 years.

Since January, there has been a total of 392,498 confirmed (and now probable) COVID-19 deaths. The rates I post (1.640% confirmed and 0.162% total) are probable underestimates since they're based on tests, not individuals, and there is no way to determine if an individual has been tested once or many times.

What can be said with some confidence is that COVID-19 is much more infectious (with caveats below) but no more deadly that the normal seasonal flu.

The caveats, of course, are masking and lockdowns, which do not show up in the CDC's seasonal flu data. Looking back at the data, though, it doesn't appear (to me, at least) that either has much effect on the course of the disease.

Lockdowns initially may have had some effect on preventing overcrowding of hospital ICUs, though looking back through my data I can't find any evidence that there was ever anything more than isolated and minor ICU capacity limitations at a few hospitals.

As far as limiting the spread of the disease, I think the evidence is mixed: states with the tightest lockdowns appear to have a fewer number than average confirmed coronavirus cases on a per-million population basis but a much higher number than average number of deaths on that same per-million basis. A case could be made, I think, that lockdowns may confined the spread somewhat but increased the severity of the disease.

The data I track doesn't directly address the efficacy of mask mandates, but given that the HealthScare^TM professionals like Anthony Fauci have been all over the map on this one, I'd suggest that outside certain venues (medical facilities, etc.) face masks are mostly useful for virtue signaling.

Widespread vaccinations may have some effect, but it is way too early to tell in the daily data I consume. If done properly (and it clearly won't be), i.e., vaccinate those most at risk first, we may see a decline in the death rate, but it's already so low that any additional decline will be hard to detect. Once vaccination is widespread, we may see the number of new cases decline, but my suspicion is that will be more a result of warmer weather (and the fact that if the coronavirus is as infectious as postulated above the body populace has already begun to defend itself). We shall see as the data continues to come in.

Finally as a continuing reminder, I still believe the data I'm seeing is mostly smoke and mirrors, political pandering. I note that all my data sources are now tracking confirmed cases and 'possible confirmed cases' and deaths and 'possible deaths' ever since Election Day in November -- probably because the actual numbers I track aren't high enough to ensure control of the non-woke.

So take the data with a large grain of salt....

And I take solace that I predicted today as early as March 2020 ("All to prevent President Trump's reelection and keep the Deep State alive) and again in April 2020 (It sure seems to me that the Deep State is doing it's damnedest to retain control).

I'll continue to monitor the 'pandemic' for a while longer, but frankly I expect nothing but distortion of the data combined with outright lies.

IF THEY HAVEN'T ALREADY, THEY SHOULD: Trump officials interfered with CDC reports on Covid-19.

Here's why, from my personal Wayback Machine:

The CDC site is nearly worthless. Mostly hype and nonsense; very little useful data. [March 14th]

Before going on to data analysis, let me suggest avoiding the CDC website unless you enjoy self-congratulatory pious posturing to show the peons how erudite the 'experts' are. Get rid of the goo and drivel and there's nothing left on the screen to read. [March 19th]

HERE'S A QUESTION that needs answering. With all the angst about coronavirus, I went to the preening popinjay (CDC) website for some statistics on seasonal flu.... [April 4th]

Note that all these observations were at the very onset of the coronavirus outbreak. The Trump administration, to its credit, is recognizing that the CDC is nothing more than a Deep State organization of pompous preening popinjays demanding to remain in power.

'INCLUSIVITY' IN OUR SCHOOLS: The CDC's radical plans for your children.

If the CDC's COVID nightmare wasn't enough, this should be proof enough to abolish the CDC entirely.

Here are some of my thoughts about the CDC from nearly 3 years ago at the onset of the COVID 'pandemic'.

SCIENCE FAILED US: CDC to be overhauled after director’s scathing admission about agency’s COVID response.

No, science didn't fail the CDC; the CDC failed science.

HERE'S A QUESTION that needs answering. With all the angst about coronavirus, I went to the preening popinjay (CDC) website for some statistics on seasonal flu. It's hard to find; I had to Google '2020 U.S. seasonal flu estimate' to find the data on the CDC site.

The CDC estimates that from the 1st of October 2019 through the 28th of May 2020 there have been between 24 and 63 thousand seasonal flu deaths; there have been 7,077 coronavirus deaths during roughly the same period (if you accept the Fox News estimate earlier this evening).

SO WHY IN BLOODY HELL is our Deep State ruling class determined to destroy the U.S. economy over a disease that has killed fewer than 10 thousand people and ho-hum about a disease that routinely kills 4 to 9 times as many people every year?

A MUST READ: The track record of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

Stunning. I knew it was bad when I checked the CDC website at the outset the COVID nightmare, but this .... this is appalling.

Here are some of the prior posts I've written about the CDC. Mostly they were during the COVID nightmare. Unfortunately the Blogger search function doesn't organize them by date but you can sense my dismay/disgust easily enough.

[Just Updated] Want more proof? Here it is. Linked from Instapundit.

WELCOME TO THE NANNY STATE

The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) administer a program called “Communities Putting Prevention To Work" (CPPW). The program gives out “stimulus” grants to states and local communities which have outlined how they plan to engage in a handful of “evidence-based” prevention strategies dubbed MAPPS, short for “Media, Access, Point of purchase/promotion, Price, and Social support and services.” In all honesty, however, “MAPPS” might as well mean “Make the American People Pay for our Schemes.”

While descriptions for some of the latest projects funded under the program sound almost laughable -- what exactly do you think they mean when they talk about “increasing point-of-decision health prompts at stairwells and elevators in public venues”? -- it becomes abundantly clear that this is a concerted effort to advance government control over our consumption decisions when reviewing the CDC’s guideline document for grantees.

Strategies listed range from outright product bans, over zoning, to media and advertising restrictions for “unhealthy” foods and drinks and tobacco products. And when Delaware receives more than $1 million to “educate leaders and decision-makers about the benefits of increasing the price on other tobacco products,” Oregon receives $3 million to “support a policy proposal to increase tobacco price,” your “stimulus” dollars are likely going towards hiring lobbyists to promote tax increases (which by the way would seem to violate one of CDC’s own lobbying restrictions).

And we’re paying stimulus money for this!

THIS IS YOUR CDC: Is the CDC downplaying the efficacy of hydroxychloroquine to ‘resist’ Trump?

More here.

WUHAN FLU THOUGHTS. As time goes on and on, our governing class gets stupider and stupider, and I get madder and madder. At the first stupid (March 14th) I decided to look around the interwebs to see what I could find in terms of coherent data that I could compare with the MSM talking screaming heads.

That search for modestly reliable tracking data found four sites (you can find them here).

Ars Technica is a reasonably common sense Q&A site but is woefully lacking tracking information.

The Coronavirus Dashboard is a highly recommended tracking site created (with a little help) by a high-school kid. (No pompous 'experts' here). The data is perhaps a bit iffy and incomplete, since Schiffmann has to pull data from a variety of bureaucratic (read that as Deep State) sources, not all of which are tracked by every source. But it is entirely consistent and constantly updated.

Before going on to data analysis, let me suggest avoiding the CDC website unless you enjoy self-congratulatory pious posturing to show the peons how erudite the 'experts' are. Get rid of the goo and drivel and there's nothing left on the screen to read.

Now back to data analysis....

The Coronavirus Dashboard tracks 4 numbers: confirmed cases, deaths, serious cases (which I infer to be hospitalizations), and recoveries. I add 3 numbers, estimated mild cases (confirmed cases less deaths, serious cases, and recoveries), estimated total cases, and death rate. To get the estimated total cases, I use the rule-of-thumb that 80% of the total cases are unreported (see my prior link). I've seen numbers around the interweb ranging from 50% to 50 bazillion percent, but the 80% number seems to track pretty well with the CDC's own midrange estimate of seasonal flu over the past 10 years. Death rate is simply deaths divided by total estimated cases.

Here's the data, from March 14th through today. Each data point was taken from the Coronavirus Dashboard at about 6 pm. The trend lines are 2nd degree polynomial fits to the data points.

The top chart is total confirmed cases, global in red (left axis), U.S. in blue (right axis). Note the dramatic increase in U.S. confirmed cases on March 18, which appears to track with the increase in testing called for by President Trump. I expect it to continue to increase as testing continues to improve.

The bottom chart is death rate; globally about 8 tenths of one percent (well below the alarmist numbers tossed hysterically around the media) and relatively stable over the entire week. The U.S. rate is about half the global rate -- and dropping rapidly toward the traditional seasonal flu rate of about 1 tenth of one percent. (I leave it as an exercise for the reader to explain to him/her self the sudden drop in death rate starting on March 18th. Also note the horizontal axes on the two charts are not the same. My bad.)

My summary: Wuhan flu is just another seasonal flu. It will spread wildly, infect millions, kill the usual one-tenth of one percent of those infected and go away to come again next year. The hysteria, which is peaking as I write this, will destroy trillions of dollars in economic value, impoverish millions of people, and probably kill thousands more in unintended consequences.

All to prevent President Trump's reelection and keep the Deep State alive.

THE CENTERS FOR DISEASE CONTROL (CDC) is forced to turn over 'V-Safe' program data.

'V-Safe' is a voluntary adverse reaction (to COVID vaccination) program sponsored by the CDC. It's not obvious whether the data gathered is meaningful in any statistical sense but the non-transparency is bothersome.

TO 'REGAIN CONTROL' PRESUPPOSES THAT THE CDC HAD CONTROL AT SOME POINT IN THE PAST: White House coronavirus task force coordinator Dr. Deborah Birx says ‘revolutionary’ coronavirus data system underway, expects CDC to regain control.

CDC REPORT: Binge Drinking Rates in U.S. ‘Alarming’. And it will get much, much worse as the CDC continues to redefine binge drinking. I'll be a binge drinker to when the definition becomes two beers in a single day.

PROOF THEY NEED THEIR BUDGET DECIMATED ZEROED: CDC to restart gun violence research.

Don't give them a damn dime until they can verify that every coronavirus has been completely and permanently eradicated.

MORE: Strike the above; make employees pay the CDC for the 'privilege' of working there.

THE CDC doesn’t deserve trust on masks.

The CDC doesn't deserve trust, period.

INTERESTING: How much good do the COVID vaccines do?

From the data tables it's evident that the vaccines are modestly effective in curbing both hospitalizations and deaths, at least in the short term, and particularly for those with underlying comorbidities as evidenced by the data for the elderly (60 & up) population where underlying comorbidities are much more likely.

The long term is still to be determined, however recent news stories about 'breakthrough' infections in the vaccinated population suggest that COVID vaccination effectiveness may not be long term (therefore booster shots). I've even seen recent suggestions that vaccination may actually increase the risk of future infection, although that seems to be just speculation.

I've seen no data that vaccination of the preschool and school age population has any effect whatsoever. The chart data tends to support that conclusion.

The comments (and I haven't read them all) seem to be mostly supportive of my view that vaccination at best is modestly effective in damping the severity of the disease in populations where immunity is compromised. Here are two of many:

(disqusdfp): Left unsaid in all of this is what death and hospitalizations would look like were the CDC and other assorted clowns not actively discouraging and even banning treatments known to be effective. Vaccines simply are not needed if good treatments are available; this is why (IMHO) after close to 2 years, there are still no fully approved treatments - the CDC wishes not to weaken the vaccination narrative. Here in Silicon Valley, even the monoclonal antibody treatment would be denied me by my medical provider, despite that as a geezer I fall into the high risk category allowed access to it. And don't let me get started on Ivermectin; we're still waiting for the "urgent studies" on that, too. My deepest disappointment is that the medical establishment is knuckling under to all this, patient wellbeing be damned. My respect for doctors is at an all-time low.

(Brandoch_Daha): I think there's no real way to tell.
Statistics, especially from the government, are so skewed (not to mention screwed) by political influence that a clear picture is impossible.
My Dad (a corporate controller) used to say that "Figures don't lie, but liars can figure."
Or put another way: "Torture numbers long enough, and they'll confess to anything."

Read it all, including some comments, and make up your own mind.

OHIO OFFICIAL WHO CLAIMED 100,000 COVID-19 CASES in the state says she was 'guesstimating'.

UPDATED AND BUMPED TO THE TOP: A NUMBER OF RANDOM THOUGHTS/LINKS ABOUT THE CORONAVIRUS WUHAN FLU:

Let's get real; it's a problem, not a panic.

More perspective.

Here are some tracking sites that provide useful daily updates: USA Today; NBC News; ARS Technica; and Coronavirus Dashboard, the last by a very innovative young blogger. The latter two seem to offer the best data with the least hype.

The CDC site is nearly worthless. Mostly hype and nonsense; very little useful data.

And now for my thoughts. Fox News reports a World Health Organization official stating that roughly 80% of coronavirus cases will involve mild symptoms, which I take to mean not reported to any health authorities. Given that as a base assumption, let's look at the data (Corona Dashboard; 5 pm EDT, 14 March).

As of this post, globally there are 157,309 confirmed coronavirus cases. Of them, there are 5,836 deaths, 5,425 reported as serious (assumed to be hospitalizations), and 77,921 reported as recovered. The balance of reported cases (estimated as the number of confirmed cases less the numbers of deaths, serious, and recovered cases) is 68,217. If we assume the WHO rule (above) that 80% of cases go unreported, then the total number of coronavirus cases worldwide is 786,545 (157309/0.20), yielding a death rate of (5836/786545) ~0.74%

Using the same logic and Coronavirus Dashboard data, there are 2,866 confirmed cases, 58 deaths, no serious cases, 2,800 mild cases (estimated as above) and 8 recoveries. Using the 80% rule of thumb as above, the total number of coronavirus cases in the United States is estimated to be 14,330, which in turn leads to an estimated death rate of ~0.40%.

The CDC estimated death rate for seasonal flu (over the last 10 years) is ~0.13%.

I'm no medical expert, but I do have some intellectual curiosity, a modicum of common sense, an ability to analyze data, and these numbers tell me that the coronavirus panic we're experiencing is mostly hype promulgated by a biased (read that as 'hate Trump') media in coordination with a Deep State determined to maintain (if not increase) its control over American citizens.

CORONAVIRUS UPDATE: Plain old ordinary annual flu has sickened between 32 and 45 million Americans and killed between 14 and 21 million since October 1, 2019 (CDC estimate). Since its inception there have been 15(!) confirmed cases in the U.S. and no deaths (also CDC sourcing).

May I be bold enough to suggest that there's a whole lotta hype going on? From the mainstream Leftist control freaks?

A NUMBER OF RANDOM THOUGHTS/LINKS ABOUT THE CORONAVIRUS WUHAN FLU:

Let's get real; it's a problem, not a panic.

More perspective.

Here are some tracking sites that provide useful daily updates: USA Today; NBC News; ARS Technica; and Coronavirus Dashboard, by a very innovative young blogger. The latter two seem to offer the best data with the least hype.

The CDC site is nearly worthless. Mostly hype and nonsense; very little useful data.

And now for my thoughts. Fox News reports a World Health Organization official that roughly 80% of coronavirus cases will involve mild symptoms, which I take to mean not reported to any health authorities. Given that as a base assumption, let's look at the data (Corona Dashboard; 5 pm EDT, 14 March).

Globally there were 154,663 confirmed coronavirus cases. Of them, there were 5,794 deaths, 5,721 reported as serious (assumed to be hospitalizations), and 76,401 reported as recovered. The balance of reported cases (estimated as the number of confirmed cases less the numbers of deaths, serious, and recovered cases) is 66,747. If we assume the WHO rule (above) that 80% of cases go unreported, then the total number of coronavirus cases worldwide is 773,315 (154663/0.20), yielding a death rate of (5794/773315) ~0.75%

Using the same logic and Coronavirus Dashboard data, there have been 2657 confirmed cases, 50 deaths, no serious cases, 2,599 mild cases (estimated as above) and 8 recoveries. Using the 80% rule of thumb as above, the total number of coronavirus cases in the United States is estimated to be 13,285, which in turn leads to an estimated death rate of ~0.38%.

The CDC estimated death rate for seasonal flu (over the last 10 years) is ~0.13%.

I'm no medical expert, but I do have some intellectual curiosity, a modicum of common sense, an ability to analyze data, and these numbers tell me that the coronavirus panic we're experiencing is mostly hype promulgated by a biased (read that as 'hate Trump') media in coordination with a Deep State determined to maintain (if not increase) its control over American citizens.

CDC DIRECTOR: Monkeypox spread through 'sustained face-to-face contact', so now the CDC wants to have its authority to issue mask mandates restored.

The U.S. case total (so far) is 49; Hawaii has 3 cases and health officials are concerned it may be 'spreading unchecked'.

It's clear that mask mandates are in the plan for the mid-terms.

NOW THEY TELL US: The CDC and other government agencies grossly overhyped the covid epidemic. Well, they didn't tell us, exactly, but the data does:

If you follow this simple procedure [look at the death certificates], you immediately realize two things: 1) most “covid deaths” involve people who have already lived longer than the average life expectancy in our state, and 2) when you look at the various maladies listed on the death certificates, in a large majority of cases covid was the least of the decedent’s problems.

Allahpundit at Hot Air claims CDC Director Rachelle Walensky's 75% comment in the above linked post was limited to breakthrough cases in the previously vaccinated elderly. Technically he/she may be correct, but there is no disputing that the vast majority of COVID-related deaths have been in the elderly with comorbidities population.