Tuesday, April 21, 2020
PROBABLY. NO, ALMOST CERTAINLY. Would de Blasio and Whitmer have informed upon the members of the Boston Tea Party?
WUHAN FLU [CORONAVIRUS] UPDATE for April 21, 2020: Here's a second update from the new Covid Tracking website I found yesterday.
The cumulative deaths curve (right axis) is trending further down, which is good, but there was a sharp increase in deaths today (left axis). Yet the overall trend line is still moving downward toward the HealthData.org's lower bound projection. It's unclear why the sharp bump, but it's most likely just a clustering of reports and tomorrow's reports will show a sharp decline to even things out.
The Coronavirus dashboard website appears to be functioning again, and is showing similar results to those seen here. It is a bit more pessimistic regarding deaths, but that is probably a result of it updating much more frequently -- the trend lines remain in sync.
One thing of note is that I have revised my procedure used to estimate total cases: instead of using the old CDC 80% rule, I'm now using a '55' rule from the California study that suggested that the coronavirus infection rate was 50-85 times higher than the number of cases reported. If those study results are reasonably accurate -- and I believe they are, based on the accumulated evidence I've seen -- then roughly 45 million (14% of) Americans have been infected and survived, and about 86% have not been infected. [Note: something I should have noted much earlier in my posts on coronavirus -- not being infected does not mean not having been exposed.]
The cumulative deaths curve (right axis) is trending further down, which is good, but there was a sharp increase in deaths today (left axis). Yet the overall trend line is still moving downward toward the HealthData.org's lower bound projection. It's unclear why the sharp bump, but it's most likely just a clustering of reports and tomorrow's reports will show a sharp decline to even things out.
The Coronavirus dashboard website appears to be functioning again, and is showing similar results to those seen here. It is a bit more pessimistic regarding deaths, but that is probably a result of it updating much more frequently -- the trend lines remain in sync.
One thing of note is that I have revised my procedure used to estimate total cases: instead of using the old CDC 80% rule, I'm now using a '55' rule from the California study that suggested that the coronavirus infection rate was 50-85 times higher than the number of cases reported. If those study results are reasonably accurate -- and I believe they are, based on the accumulated evidence I've seen -- then roughly 45 million (14% of) Americans have been infected and survived, and about 86% have not been infected. [Note: something I should have noted much earlier in my posts on coronavirus -- not being infected does not mean not having been exposed.]
DRINK IT IF YA GOT IT: Iranian ‘Prophetic Medicine Healer’ prescribes camel urine to treat the Wuhan Flu.
I've heard that sometimes the cure is worse than the disease. This may be one such.
I've heard that sometimes the cure is worse than the disease. This may be one such.
AMERICANS ARE PROTESTING ALL RIGHT, just not for themselves.
Unforunately the whiny, self-absorbed wokester class benefits, but that's one of those unintended consequence thingys that we non-wokesters have to live with.
Unforunately the whiny, self-absorbed wokester class benefits, but that's one of those unintended consequence thingys that we non-wokesters have to live with.
CNN'S BRIAN STELTER: the archetype of 'wokeness'.
Preening. Privileged. Insulated. Useless.
Update: I forgot 'Arrogant' above.
Preening. Privileged. Insulated. Useless.
Update: I forgot 'Arrogant' above.
I AM SO GLAD SHE'S STILL NOT OUR GOVERNOR: Stacey Abrams calls Georgia's plan to reopen some businesses amid coronavirus 'dangerously incompetent'.
And I look forward to Joe Biden picking her so she can also not be our Vice President....
And I look forward to Joe Biden picking her so she can also not be our Vice President....
SINCE SPEAKER PELOSI is now 'Non-Essential Nancy', can she be locked down, quarantined, and laid off?
CORONAVIRUS UPDATE: Here's an update from a new tracking website I've found. The data is U.S. only and was updated on the 20th.
I've plotted the daily (left axis) and cumulative (right axis) death rates against the HealthData.org projections I've used before. As I've surmised earlier, the deaths are tailing off, looking to fall very close to HealthData's lower bound projection. You will note the data variability from 12-15 April, which (I still believe) is a result of New York and other Democrat-controlled states in the northeast massaging the data.
The Coronavirus Dashboard appears to be back up after a week or so hiatus. I may return to using it since its presentation of data has been easier to summarize, but I want to watch it for a few more days and I'll have to change my charts to accomodate the changes it made with the addition of testing data.
I've plotted the daily (left axis) and cumulative (right axis) death rates against the HealthData.org projections I've used before. As I've surmised earlier, the deaths are tailing off, looking to fall very close to HealthData's lower bound projection. You will note the data variability from 12-15 April, which (I still believe) is a result of New York and other Democrat-controlled states in the northeast massaging the data.
The Coronavirus Dashboard appears to be back up after a week or so hiatus. I may return to using it since its presentation of data has been easier to summarize, but I want to watch it for a few more days and I'll have to change my charts to accomodate the changes it made with the addition of testing data.
AND STATES ARE RESPONDING: Three states announce plans to end stay-at-home orders and restart their economies.
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