SPRING FORWARD, 5TH WEEK: Here are this week's pictures. The day started out cloudy and dank, but turned to sun later in the day.

Here's the usual view from the deck. The small stuff (including weeds) are popping out all over, but the trees -- though actively budding -- haven't yet started to show leaves. Next week should be a different story.

The fire pit view is much the same -- lots of buds, but no leaves yet.

This one, along the back driveway, is clearly showing leaves on some of the smaller trees that line the driveway. Even the bigger ones are beginning to show a few leaves ahead of their cousins downslope.

Around the pond, there's finally some activity. The smaller trees are almost in full glory; the bigger oaks are budding, but not yet to the stage of showing leaves.

And finally, the house taken from the boat launch edge of the pond. It's a favorite of mine because in full summer the house will virtually disappear behing a wall of green.

Last week's pictures are here.

RUSSIA! RUSSIA! A historic travesty.

People must pay....

CALIFORNIA STUDY: Antibodies shows 50-85 times as many people in California county have had the disease than there were confirmed cases.

Forget Allahpundit's analysis and focus on facts. The study was an April 4-5 study limited to Santa Clara county (population ~ 2,000,000) in California. Volunteers were recruited on Facebook so the study population was at best semi-random. On April 4th the confirmed coronavirus population was ~950, so the estimated (95% confidence) infection range was 50 to 85 times higher than the known cases.

That is astonishing; it represents a 98.2% to 98.8% unreported case rate as compared to CDC (and other - see my coronavirus daily update series starting March 19) estimates of 80%-85% unreported cases for a many-year history of seasonal flu.

Think about that for a moment. On April 13th, the day I came to believe the data was being manipulated, the U.S. death rate was estimated to be 0.80%. If I were to recalculate from the same data but using the newly reported 98.2%-98.8% unreported case rate, the U.S. death rate would have been reported as 0.05%-0.07%, well below the CDC's multi-year history of reporting a seasonal flu death rate of ~0.1%

Troubling?

Now lets look at the 'herd immunity' statements. In Santa Clara county, confirmed cases were 1870 on April 17th compared to ~950 on April 4, a doubling of known cases roughly every two weeks. If you assume that doubling rate is relatively accurate (it isn't; all it takes is a little math to show), then there should have been 30+ cases on January 31st when the first case was identified, and by sometime between the 30th of May and 13th of June Allahpundit's 60% of the population will achieve his 'herd immunity' goal. (One week later, everyone in Santa Clara county will be 'immune'.)

My argument just above is mathematically correct and factually absurd. The point is this: to achieve herd immunity requires people be infected and our HealthScare Professionals are doing their damnedest to prevent that. That said, it becomes fairly obvious that there will be a second round, which our HealthScare Professionals are already (gleefully?) predicting.

I hate being such a skeptic, but it sure seems to me that the Deep State is doing it's damnedest to retain control.

WE'RE ALL IN THE SAME BOAT: Ri-i-i-i-ght.

AMMO GRRRLL: And you think we have it bad now?

They grew up in the midst of the Great Depression, which at that point had been going on for nine miserable years. They survived drought, dust, locusts, and poverty. How poor were they? They recalled that one classmate’s mother loved to write poetry. The Lutheran Sunday School superintendent would give her the little stubs of pencils when they were almost too small to hold. One day their classmate found a nickel in the street and bought her mother two brand new #2 pencils! Her mother cried for an hour. THAT’S how poor. Can you imagine the poorest American — native born or refugee, of any color — being thrilled to tears with a PENCIL? Not with free food stamps, free Section 8 housing, free medical care and a free Obama phone.

My worst days through this 'pandemic' pale by comparison.

FOUR REASONS it is safe to reopen America. The full essay is here.

I THINK NOT YET: Is President Trump forgetting Politics 101?

But I am concerned.

ELIZABETH WARREN: Trump is trying to turn the pandemic into a political rally by encouraging protests of stupid restrictions. Unlike Warren, who wants to berate the little minions for not following orders.

I stand with President Trump, not Would Like To Be President Warren.

SINCE OBAMACARE CZAR AND BIDEN CORONAVIRUS ADVISOR EZKEIEL EMANUEL is so certain that seniors over 75 are such a burden on society, why are the coronavirus task forces so intent on isolating them?

GOOD NEWS: Trump stopped school shootings....

RANDOM THOUGHT: Why haven't cigarette sales been banned as 'nonessential'? The healthscare police have been trying for years -- doesn't this fit under their 'no crisis left behind' principle?

RIDDLE ME THIS: Why is it safer to be in a big box store with 100 customers and 50 employees than it is to be in a Mom & Pop restaurant with 10 customers and 4 employees?

Explain. Use reason and logic, not emotion and appeal to authority.

A NEW HIGH IN BAFFLEGAB: Gov. Walz explains. Democrats are good at bafflegab; it's all they have.

THE BEGINNING OF THE END -- in spite of governors such as Andrew Cuomo and Gretchen Whitmer.

A good plan, violently executed now, is better than a perfect plan next week.
— General George S. Patton Jr. on the wisdom of taking prompt action based
on limited information.

Mr. President, you have a good plan. Execute the plan. (And the naysayers.)

OPAQUE IS THE NEW TRANSPARENCY: Pelosi explains.

It's smoke and mirrors; it's always smoke and mirrors from Democrats.

M*A*S*H anticipates the coronavirus.