Thursday, March 19, 2020

WUHAN FLU THOUGHTS. As time goes on and on, our governing class gets stupider and stupider, and I get madder and madder. At the first stupid (March 14th) I decided to look around the interwebs to see what I could find in terms of coherent data that I could compare with the MSM talking screaming heads.

That search for modestly reliable tracking data found four sites (you can find them here).

Ars Technica is a reasonably common sense Q&A site but is woefully lacking tracking information.

The Coronavirus Dashboard is a highly recommended tracking site created (with a little help) by a high-school kid. (No pompous 'experts' here). The data is perhaps a bit iffy and incomplete, since Schiffmann has to pull data from a variety of bureaucratic (read that as Deep State) sources, not all of which are tracked by every source. But it is entirely consistent and constantly updated.

Before going on to data analysis, let me suggest avoiding the CDC website unless you enjoy self-congratulatory pious posturing to show the peons how erudite the 'experts' are. Get rid of the goo and drivel and there's nothing left on the screen to read.

Now back to data analysis....

The Coronavirus Dashboard tracks 4 numbers: confirmed cases, deaths, serious cases (which I infer to be hospitalizations), and recoveries. I add 3 numbers, estimated mild cases (confirmed cases less deaths, serious cases, and recoveries), estimated total cases, and death rate. To get the estimated total cases, I use the rule-of-thumb that 80% of the total cases are unreported (see my prior link). I've seen numbers around the interweb ranging from 50% to 50 bazillion percent, but the 80% number seems to track pretty well with the CDC's own midrange estimate of seasonal flu over the past 10 years. Death rate is simply deaths divided by total estimated cases.

Here's the data, from March 14th through today. Each data point was taken from the Coronavirus Dashboard at about 6 pm. The trend lines are 2nd degree polynomial fits to the data points.


The top chart is total confirmed cases, global in red (left axis), U.S. in blue (right axis). Note the dramatic increase in U.S. confirmed cases on March 18, which appears to track with the increase in testing called for by President Trump. I expect it to continue to increase as testing continues to improve.

The bottom chart is death rate; globally about 8 tenths of one percent (well below the alarmist numbers tossed hysterically around the media) and relatively stable over the entire week. The U.S. rate is about half the global rate -- and dropping rapidly toward the traditional seasonal flu rate of about 1 tenth of one percent. (I leave it as an exercise for the reader to explain to him/her self the sudden drop in death rate starting on March 18th. Also note the horizontal axes on the two charts are not the same. My bad.)

My summary: Wuhan flu is just another seasonal flu. It will spread wildly, infect millions, kill the usual one-tenth of one percent of those infected and go away to come again next year. The hysteria, which is peaking as I write this, will destroy trillions of dollars in economic value, impoverish millions of people, and probably kill thousands more in unintended consequences.

All to prevent President Trump's reelection and keep the Deep State alive.
I THINK THAT'S A FAIR STATEMENT: Will the real victim of the Wuhan flu ‘crisis’ be your rights?

This 'pandemic' is -- and always has been -- about the global 'deep state' keeping and maintaining control of the sheeple. Don't let them.
IF THEY'RE GENDER-NEUTRAL, why do you need two?

Just asking the obvious question....
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON: America in a new upside-down world.
[T]he key is not to damn the panic over the virus, but to understand and accept it—while reassuring Americans that all that can be done is being done, and what downturns they now experience will soon be overshadowed by even more jobs and greater economic expansion and wealth creation to come.

We sometimes forget, in legitimate fears of the coronavirus, that every action prompts a reaction and the massive curtailments of the U.S. economy can have as many health consequences as the virus itself—if millions lose income and jobs, become depressed in self-isolation, increase smoking, and drug and alcohol use, and postpone out of fear necessary buying and visits to doctors and hospitals for chronic and serious medical conditions unrelated to the virus.

In addition, it is not wrong to remind the public that current but once caricatured policies of secure borders, targeted travel bans, demands for transparency and symmetry from major U.S. trading partners, recalibration with China, and a return of manufacturing and assembly of key U.S. industries, from high-technology to pharmaceuticals, was long overdue—and must continue to ensure U.S. security and the long-term health of its people.
As usual with anything written by Hanson, read it all.
TOWNHALL: Democrats propose to destroy America to 'protect' us from the Wuhan virus.
They'd release prisoners, ignore crime, ban private ownership of guns, seize control of private industries and take over the medical industry.
But other than that....
AMERICAN SPECTATOR: The panic among the pigeons pigeon-headed. Read it all for some much-needed common sense.
DR. ANTHONY FAUCI: The CDC testing delay for Wuhan virus is 'certainly not the President’s fault'.

He's right; it's the fault of the bureaucratic Deep State and he might try looking in the mirror for his own part.
TOTAL BULLSHIT: President Trump told governors they're 'on their own'.

The New York Slimes Times lies again.
BERNIE SANDERS LASHES OUT: 'I'm dealing with a f---ing global crisis.'

If I may be so bold, "What is he talking about? Since when has blather been associated with 'doing something'?"
THE NEW YORK TIMES 'KEPT CONSERVATIVE' DAVID BROOKS EXPLAINS: Americans who voted for a 'sociopath are responsible for the Wuhan virus.

The farce is strong in that dingbat.