Saturday, March 14, 2020

A NUMBER OF RANDOM THOUGHTS/LINKS ABOUT THE CORONAVIRUS WUHAN FLU:

Let's get real; it's a problem, not a panic.

More perspective.


Here are some tracking sites that provide useful daily updates: USA Today; NBC News; ARS Technica; and Coronavirus Dashboard, by a very innovative young blogger. The latter two seem to offer the best data with the least hype.

The CDC site is nearly worthless. Mostly hype and nonsense; very little useful data.

And now for my thoughts. Fox News reports a World Health Organization official that roughly 80% of coronavirus cases will involve mild symptoms, which I take to mean not reported to any health authorities. Given that as a base assumption, let's look at the data (Corona Dashboard; 5 pm EDT, 14 March).

Globally there were 154,663 confirmed coronavirus cases. Of them, there were 5,794 deaths, 5,721 reported as serious (assumed to be hospitalizations), and 76,401 reported as recovered. The balance of reported cases (estimated as the number of confirmed cases less the numbers of deaths, serious, and recovered cases) is 66,747. If we assume the WHO rule (above) that 80% of cases go unreported, then the total number of coronavirus cases worldwide is 773,315 (154663/0.20), yielding a death rate of (5794/773315) ~0.75%

Using the same logic and Coronavirus Dashboard data, there have been 2657 confirmed cases, 50 deaths, no serious cases, 2,599 mild cases (estimated as above) and 8 recoveries. Using the 80% rule of thumb as above, the total number of coronavirus cases in the United States is estimated to be 13,285, which in turn leads to an estimated death rate of ~0.38%.

The CDC estimated death rate for seasonal flu (over the last 10 years) is ~0.13%.

I'm no medical expert, but I do have some intellectual curiosity, a modicum of common sense, an ability to analyze data, and these numbers tell me that the coronavirus panic we're experiencing is mostly hype promulgated by a biased (read that as 'hate Trump') media in coordination with a Deep State determined to maintain (if not increase) its control over American citizens.

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