WUHAN FLU THOUGHTS. As time goes on and on, our governing class gets stupider and stupider, and I get madder and madder. At the first stupid (March 14th) I decided to look around the interwebs to see what I could find in terms of coherent data that I could compare with the MSM talking screaming heads.

That search for modestly reliable tracking data found four sites (you can find them here).

Ars Technica is a reasonably common sense Q&A site but is woefully lacking tracking information.

The Coronavirus Dashboard is a highly recommended tracking site created (with a little help) by a high-school kid. (No pompous 'experts' here). The data is perhaps a bit iffy and incomplete, since Schiffmann has to pull data from a variety of bureaucratic (read that as Deep State) sources, not all of which are tracked by every source. But it is entirely consistent and constantly updated.

Before going on to data analysis, let me suggest avoiding the CDC website unless you enjoy self-congratulatory pious posturing to show the peons how erudite the 'experts' are. Get rid of the goo and drivel and there's nothing left on the screen to read.

Now back to data analysis....

The Coronavirus Dashboard tracks 4 numbers: confirmed cases, deaths, serious cases (which I infer to be hospitalizations), and recoveries. I add 3 numbers, estimated mild cases (confirmed cases less deaths, serious cases, and recoveries), estimated total cases, and death rate. To get the estimated total cases, I use the rule-of-thumb that 80% of the total cases are unreported (see my prior link). I've seen numbers around the interweb ranging from 50% to 50 bazillion percent, but the 80% number seems to track pretty well with the CDC's own midrange estimate of seasonal flu over the past 10 years. Death rate is simply deaths divided by total estimated cases.

Here's the data, from March 14th through today. Each data point was taken from the Coronavirus Dashboard at about 6 pm. The trend lines are 2nd degree polynomial fits to the data points.

The top chart is total confirmed cases, global in red (left axis), U.S. in blue (right axis). Note the dramatic increase in U.S. confirmed cases on March 18, which appears to track with the increase in testing called for by President Trump. I expect it to continue to increase as testing continues to improve.

The bottom chart is death rate; globally about 8 tenths of one percent (well below the alarmist numbers tossed hysterically around the media) and relatively stable over the entire week. The U.S. rate is about half the global rate -- and dropping rapidly toward the traditional seasonal flu rate of about 1 tenth of one percent. (I leave it as an exercise for the reader to explain to him/her self the sudden drop in death rate starting on March 18th. Also note the horizontal axes on the two charts are not the same. My bad.)

My summary: Wuhan flu is just another seasonal flu. It will spread wildly, infect millions, kill the usual one-tenth of one percent of those infected and go away to come again next year. The hysteria, which is peaking as I write this, will destroy trillions of dollars in economic value, impoverish millions of people, and probably kill thousands more in unintended consequences.

All to prevent President Trump's reelection and keep the Deep State alive.