WUHAN FLU [CORONAVIRUS] UPDATE: January 19,2021. I've been away from blogging the last two weeks, mostly in disgust with the increasing -- and virulent -- insanity of the political Left and the total spinelessness of the political Right.

However ... flu season is upon us, and here are some thoughts on flu -- both seasonal and the Wuhan variety. Let's start the discussion with this chart taken from the CDC's very own web site (it's a bit dated, since I copied it a couple of weeks ago for another post, and am unwilling to further pollute myself by going back for an update:

This is what a flu season looks like -- a spike, starting a few weeks ago (black triangles) and lasting about 16 weeks (4 months -- December, January, February, and March).

This is what we can reasonably expect for the next several months. The seasonal flu (although the CDC refuses to track the flu -- especially now) and COVID-19 infections will rise dramatically because we're both indoors and in more crowded spaces, the number of deaths will increase, and the death rate will remain stable.

I've been tracking the coronavirus data daily since mid-March of 2000. Here's the most recent update on deaths since I started tracking:

The data is consistent with both prior posts and my expectations above: infections are increasing rapidly; deaths are increasing commiserate; and the death rate (not shown in this chart) remains stable and low.

Now for some thoughts on the entire pandemic. First note three things:

(1) The first peak in April dates to when the coronavirus was first identified in the U.S. and spreading rapidly, so much so that according to news reports at the time the virus would expose (not infect, but expose) everyone in the U.S. by mid-year. That's my estimate, based on data published back in April.

(2) The initial lockdown (in Georgia, it was for the month of April) had no long-term effect as indicated above by the continuing growth curve. In fact, it was supposed to only keep hospitals from being overwhelmed. Remember that? It never happened; hospitals in Georgia and elsewhere were never overwhelmed. At most the lockdowns may have delayed the growth of coronavirus infections; they clearly did not stop it.

(3) The number of deaths began to rise again with the onset of flu season -- as expected -- in November. It isn't clear -- yet -- but the number of deaths seems to be stabilizing

Here's the death rate (calculated as a percentage of confirmed and total cases) since testing became more routine in May. It has exponentially dropped (trend line) from about 5% to 1.6% of confirmed cases today. The data for total cases has been steadily about 1/10th of confirmed cases. And as predicted above, the rates have continued to decline exponentially (i.e., remain stable).

So, to me at least, here's the bottom line.

COVID arrived in the U.S. in early 2020, maybe as far back as late 2019. It spread rapidly, probably exposing the entire U.S. population by mid-year if it was as infectious as claimed by our esteemed HealthScare^TM professionals.

The initial death rate was high, as might be expected, until the population adapted (meaning developed an immune response) to the new threat. Most (~90%) of the population simply ignored it (were preemptively immune); some (~10%) defeated it (i.e., got ill and recovered), and a very few (~ 0.1%) got ill and died.

Finally, an almost impossible -- and quite probably irrelevant -- short comparison of COVID-19 with seasonal flu. I say that based on the fact that data sets are quite honestly not directly comparable.

From the CDC website today, the 10-year average number of deaths from seasonal flu cases is about 35,900. Symptomatic illnesses, medical visits, and hospitalizations are categorized and estimated, not tracked, and it is unknown if the categories mutually exclusive. Moreover CDC estimates that something like 85% to 90% of seasonal flu cases are never reported. Based on their data, the CDC estimates a death rate of ~0.134% over the last 10 years.

Since January, there has been a total of 392,498 confirmed (and now probable) COVID-19 deaths. The rates I post (1.640% confirmed and 0.162% total) are probable underestimates since they're based on tests, not individuals, and there is no way to determine if an individual has been tested once or many times.

What can be said with some confidence is that COVID-19 is much more infectious (with caveats below) but no more deadly that the normal seasonal flu.

The caveats, of course, are masking and lockdowns, which do not show up in the CDC's seasonal flu data. Looking back at the data, though, it doesn't appear (to me, at least) that either has much effect on the course of the disease.

Lockdowns initially may have had some effect on preventing overcrowding of hospital ICUs, though looking back through my data I can't find any evidence that there was ever anything more than isolated and minor ICU capacity limitations at a few hospitals.

As far as limiting the spread of the disease, I think the evidence is mixed: states with the tightest lockdowns appear to have a fewer number than average confirmed coronavirus cases on a per-million population basis but a much higher number than average number of deaths on that same per-million basis. A case could be made, I think, that lockdowns may confined the spread somewhat but increased the severity of the disease.

The data I track doesn't directly address the efficacy of mask mandates, but given that the HealthScare^TM professionals like Anthony Fauci have been all over the map on this one, I'd suggest that outside certain venues (medical facilities, etc.) face masks are mostly useful for virtue signaling.

Widespread vaccinations may have some effect, but it is way too early to tell in the daily data I consume. If done properly (and it clearly won't be), i.e., vaccinate those most at risk first, we may see a decline in the death rate, but it's already so low that any additional decline will be hard to detect. Once vaccination is widespread, we may see the number of new cases decline, but my suspicion is that will be more a result of warmer weather (and the fact that if the coronavirus is as infectious as postulated above the body populace has already begun to defend itself). We shall see as the data continues to come in.

Finally as a continuing reminder, I still believe the data I'm seeing is mostly smoke and mirrors, political pandering. I note that all my data sources are now tracking confirmed cases and 'possible confirmed cases' and deaths and 'possible deaths' ever since Election Day in November -- probably because the actual numbers I track aren't high enough to ensure control of the non-woke.

So take the data with a large grain of salt....

And I take solace that I predicted today as early as March 2020 ("All to prevent President Trump's reelection and keep the Deep State alive) and again in April 2020 (It sure seems to me that the Deep State is doing it's damnedest to retain control).

I'll continue to monitor the 'pandemic' for a while longer, but frankly I expect nothing but distortion of the data combined with outright lies.