Sunday, April 19, 2020

CALIFORNIA STUDY: Antibodies shows 50-85 times as many people in California county have had the disease than there were confirmed cases.

Forget Allahpundit's analysis and focus on facts. The study was an April 4-5 study limited to Santa Clara county (population ~ 2,000,000) in California. Volunteers were recruited on Facebook so the study population was at best semi-random. On April 4th the confirmed coronavirus population was ~950, so the estimated (95% confidence) infection range was 50 to 85 times higher than the known cases.

That is astonishing; it represents a 98.2% to 98.8% unreported case rate as compared to CDC (and other - see my coronavirus daily update series starting March 19) estimates of 80%-85% unreported cases for a many-year history of seasonal flu.

Think about that for a moment. On April 13th, the day I came to believe the data was being manipulated, the U.S. death rate was estimated to be 0.80%. If I were to recalculate from the same data but using the newly reported 98.2%-98.8% unreported case rate, the U.S. death rate would have been reported as 0.05%-0.07%, well below the CDC's multi-year history of reporting a seasonal flu death rate of ~0.1%

Troubling?

Now lets look at the 'herd immunity' statements. In Santa Clara county, confirmed cases were 1870 on April 17th compared to ~950 on April 4, a doubling of known cases roughly every two weeks. If you assume that doubling rate is relatively accurate (it isn't; all it takes is a little math to show), then there should have been 30+ cases on January 31st when the first case was identified, and by sometime between the 30th of May and 13th of June Allahpundit's 60% of the population will achieve his 'herd immunity' goal. (One week later, everyone in Santa Clara county will be 'immune'.)

My argument just above is mathematically correct and factually absurd. The point is this: to achieve herd immunity requires people be infected and our HealthScare Professionals are doing their damnedest to prevent that. That said, it becomes fairly obvious that there will be a second round, which our HealthScare Professionals are already (gleefully?) predicting.

I hate being such a skeptic, but it sure seems to me that the Deep State is doing it's damnedest to retain control.

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