HERE'S A QUESTION that needs answering. With all the angst about coronavirus, I went to the preening popinjay (CDC) website for some statistics on seasonal flu. It's hard to find; I had to Google '2020 U.S. seasonal flu estimate' to find the data on the CDC site.
The CDC estimates that from the 1st of October 2019 through the 28th of May 2020 there have been between 24 and 63 thousand seasonal flu deaths; there have been 7,077 coronavirus deaths during roughly the same period (if you accept the Fox News estimate earlier this evening).
SO WHY IN BLOODY HELL is our Deep State ruling class determined to destroy the U.S. economy over a disease that has killed fewer than 10 thousand people and ho-hum about a disease that routinely kills 4 to 9 times as many people every year?
Saturday, April 04, 2020
WUHAN FLU [CORONAVIRUS] UPDATE for April 4, 2020. Here's tonight's update. Note the scale change on the Reported Cases chart.
There's something fishy in Denmark on the below chart. The Coronavirus Dashboard website shows over 8700 U.S. deaths today, up 1300 since yesterday, yet nowhere else can I find such a steep increase (Fox News is only reporting 7077 at 10:30 pm). If I use the Dashboard number, the death rate (plus signs on the chart) is on the high projection; if I use the Fox News number, the death rate is well below the the low projection (almost zero). Something's wrong - I don't trust either number.
Moreover, I'm seeing (here) that hospitalizations, and presumably deaths, are actually declining in the so-called hot spots. That's more in line with my own experience surfing the web.
Maybe some explanation tomorrow.
There's something fishy in Denmark on the below chart. The Coronavirus Dashboard website shows over 8700 U.S. deaths today, up 1300 since yesterday, yet nowhere else can I find such a steep increase (Fox News is only reporting 7077 at 10:30 pm). If I use the Dashboard number, the death rate (plus signs on the chart) is on the high projection; if I use the Fox News number, the death rate is well below the the low projection (almost zero). Something's wrong - I don't trust either number.
Moreover, I'm seeing (here) that hospitalizations, and presumably deaths, are actually declining in the so-called hot spots. That's more in line with my own experience surfing the web.
Maybe some explanation tomorrow.
Friday, April 03, 2020
Thursday, April 02, 2020
WUHAN FLU [CORONAVIRUS] UPDATE for April 2, 2020. Without comment tonight [note scale change]:
Now a new addition:
Here's a new chart taken from HealthData.Org. It's their projection of daily U.S. deaths from the coronavirus over the next month, assuming (their assumption, not mine) strict social distancing.The data points in black are actuals, taken from HealthData and the Coronavirus Dashboard, through April first. The dashed lines are HealthData's projections for April, worst-case in red, best case in green.
On the right (secondary scale) I've plotted cumulative deaths from their projected data. The diamond points are actuals through April first.
I'll be plotting the coronavirus actuals over the projections as the week proceeds to see how well -- or poorly -- the projections fare.
Update: 99.64% of the U.S. population is still virus-free.
Now a new addition:
Here's a new chart taken from HealthData.Org. It's their projection of daily U.S. deaths from the coronavirus over the next month, assuming (their assumption, not mine) strict social distancing.The data points in black are actuals, taken from HealthData and the Coronavirus Dashboard, through April first. The dashed lines are HealthData's projections for April, worst-case in red, best case in green.
On the right (secondary scale) I've plotted cumulative deaths from their projected data. The diamond points are actuals through April first.
I'll be plotting the coronavirus actuals over the projections as the week proceeds to see how well -- or poorly -- the projections fare.
Update: 99.64% of the U.S. population is still virus-free.
Wednesday, April 01, 2020
MR. PRESIDENT, re-open the economy. We will wash our hands. Promise.
As I have said before -- over and over ... and over again -- with Democrats, it's all about control.
As I have said before -- over and over ... and over again -- with Democrats, it's all about control.
Tuesday, March 31, 2020
WUHAN FLU [CORONAVIRUS] UPDATE for March 31, 2020.
I've had to change scales again. In the Cases Reported chart, the right-side (U.S.) scale has been changed to match the left-side (global) scale. After a short pause, the reporting rate is increasing again. Whether that's because of increased testing is yet to be known, but my thought is that for U.S. cases the increase is due to more reports of what I take to be widespread test capability.
Death rates in the U.S. seem to be rising; why isn't clear unless it's a result of tests only being performed in the so-called 'hot spots'.
That said, 99.72% of the U.S. population is still virus-free.
I've had to change scales again. In the Cases Reported chart, the right-side (U.S.) scale has been changed to match the left-side (global) scale. After a short pause, the reporting rate is increasing again. Whether that's because of increased testing is yet to be known, but my thought is that for U.S. cases the increase is due to more reports of what I take to be widespread test capability.
Death rates in the U.S. seem to be rising; why isn't clear unless it's a result of tests only being performed in the so-called 'hot spots'.
That said, 99.72% of the U.S. population is still virus-free.
Monday, March 30, 2020
WUHAN FLU [CORONAVIRUS] UPDATE for March 30, 2010.
No significant (that I can tell) changes. There seems a very slight uptick in the global death rate, a slight downtick in the U.S. death rate, but both are well within any margin for error. We shall see.
Reminder: today 99.76% of the U.S. is still virus free.
No significant (that I can tell) changes. There seems a very slight uptick in the global death rate, a slight downtick in the U.S. death rate, but both are well within any margin for error. We shall see.
Reminder: today 99.76% of the U.S. is still virus free.
Sunday, March 29, 2020
SPRING FORWARD 2ND WEEK: Here are the second week's pictures. The starting point, as usual, is the view from the deck. No change from last week, except it was cloudy when I took the picture this week. The scrub brush, which I am assidously attacking with the brush cutter, is beginning to poke through the leaves, but the trees have yet to show signs of budding out.
This is the Road from Nowhere (our house) with the driveway bottom right. During the summer it's typically a tunnel. Right now it looks like a freeway.
The third picture is the house taken from out beyond the fire pit. Our 'yard', in which I've assiduously attacked with the brush cutter, is clear for now. Hopefully it'll remain clear as summer returns, but I have my doubts.
And the final picture is the pond again, showing the walking path that goes around the perimeter. I've avoided cutting the brush along the pond side in past years, but this year I think I'll get the heavy boots, a safety rope, and attack it. It's a good 3-4 feet to the water, and very steep, but needs a good cleaning.
Till next week, then. Last week's pictures are here.
This is the Road from Nowhere (our house) with the driveway bottom right. During the summer it's typically a tunnel. Right now it looks like a freeway.
The third picture is the house taken from out beyond the fire pit. Our 'yard', in which I've assiduously attacked with the brush cutter, is clear for now. Hopefully it'll remain clear as summer returns, but I have my doubts.
And the final picture is the pond again, showing the walking path that goes around the perimeter. I've avoided cutting the brush along the pond side in past years, but this year I think I'll get the heavy boots, a safety rope, and attack it. It's a good 3-4 feet to the water, and very steep, but needs a good cleaning.
Till next week, then. Last week's pictures are here.
WUHAN FLU [CORONAVIRUS] UPDATE: Here's today's data, updated around 6 pm.
Note I've changed the scale again on the Cases Reported graph. Reported cases are still growing, a little more steeply for U.S. cases. I was probably a little overoptimistic yesterday is describing the data plotted on a log scale. Globally, the cases are still growing exponentially, though the rate does appear to be slowing over the past three days or so. For the U.S. data, cases are still growing marginally exponentially, though the rate has been slowing consistently faster than the global data and for a longer period of time.
Death rates are still trending higher, more so in the U.S. Still, both are below (far below for the U.S.) the 1% rate of a normal annual flu season. The apparent increase in death rate for the U.S. is a bit puzzling, in that I would expect increased testing would find a larger percentage of people who are ill, but not in serious danger of death. Unless all -- or the majority of -- the testing is performed on people who have been or are going to be hospitalized. This one is worth watching....
Reminder: today 99.79% of the U.S. population are (still) virus-free. That number has been dropping slightly for over a week now, which suggests that the increased testing is having the effect of generating real, useful data.
Note I've changed the scale again on the Cases Reported graph. Reported cases are still growing, a little more steeply for U.S. cases. I was probably a little overoptimistic yesterday is describing the data plotted on a log scale. Globally, the cases are still growing exponentially, though the rate does appear to be slowing over the past three days or so. For the U.S. data, cases are still growing marginally exponentially, though the rate has been slowing consistently faster than the global data and for a longer period of time.
Death rates are still trending higher, more so in the U.S. Still, both are below (far below for the U.S.) the 1% rate of a normal annual flu season. The apparent increase in death rate for the U.S. is a bit puzzling, in that I would expect increased testing would find a larger percentage of people who are ill, but not in serious danger of death. Unless all -- or the majority of -- the testing is performed on people who have been or are going to be hospitalized. This one is worth watching....
Reminder: today 99.79% of the U.S. population are (still) virus-free. That number has been dropping slightly for over a week now, which suggests that the increased testing is having the effect of generating real, useful data.
I FUCKED UP. So I'm going to sue you for responding to my fuckup. NY Gov. Cuomo threatens to sue Rhode Island for crackdown on New York visitors.
Saturday, March 28, 2020
IF ONLY IT WEREN'T ACCIDENTAL: Government accidentally shuts itself down with ban on non-essential businesses.
Yes, it's the Babylon Bee. I wish it weren't.
Yes, it's the Babylon Bee. I wish it weren't.
POWERLINE'S Week in Pictures has two favorites this week. Here's the first:
And I was always of the opinion that duct tape was the solution to every problem. I was wrong.
Now go see the rest. They're worth the trip.
And I was always of the opinion that duct tape was the solution to every problem. I was wrong.
Now go see the rest. They're worth the trip.
WUHAN FLU [CORONAVIRUS] UPDATE: There was no update yesterday; believe it or not, in rural Georgia, we're still allowed to travel to visit friends and family (and bring toilet paper).
Here's today's data, updated around 6 pm.
Note I've changed the scale again on the Cases Reported graph and I'll probably have to do it again on Monday or so. Reported cases are still growing, a little more steeply for U.S. cases. Given the increased testing, I'm somewhat surprised they're not growing more rapidly. The good news, though, is that if the vertical scale were logarithmic you could see that the (feared) exponential growth has almost stopped. Plot the data logarithmically and the curves are flat, beginning to bend downward, which means that the growth rate is linear, not exponential.
Death rates are still trending higher, more so in the U.S. Still, both are below (far below for the U.S.) the 1% rate of a normal annual flu season.
Reminder: today 99.82% of the U.S. population are (still) virus-free.
Here's today's data, updated around 6 pm.
Note I've changed the scale again on the Cases Reported graph and I'll probably have to do it again on Monday or so. Reported cases are still growing, a little more steeply for U.S. cases. Given the increased testing, I'm somewhat surprised they're not growing more rapidly. The good news, though, is that if the vertical scale were logarithmic you could see that the (feared) exponential growth has almost stopped. Plot the data logarithmically and the curves are flat, beginning to bend downward, which means that the growth rate is linear, not exponential.
Death rates are still trending higher, more so in the U.S. Still, both are below (far below for the U.S.) the 1% rate of a normal annual flu season.
Reminder: today 99.82% of the U.S. population are (still) virus-free.
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