Saturday, March 28, 2020

WUHAN FLU [CORONAVIRUS] UPDATE: There was no update yesterday; believe it or not, in rural Georgia, we're still allowed to travel to visit friends and family (and bring toilet paper).

Here's today's data, updated around 6 pm.


Note I've changed the scale again on the Cases Reported graph and I'll probably have to do it again on Monday or so. Reported cases are still growing, a little more steeply for U.S. cases. Given the increased testing, I'm somewhat surprised they're not growing more rapidly. The good news, though, is that if the vertical scale were logarithmic you could see that the (feared) exponential growth has almost stopped. Plot the data logarithmically and the curves are flat, beginning to bend downward, which means that the growth rate is linear, not exponential.

Death rates are still trending higher, more so in the U.S. Still, both are below (far below for the U.S.) the 1% rate of a normal annual flu season.

Reminder: today 99.82% of the U.S. population are (still) virus-free.

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