[W]hat we are going through now -- a wildly overblown reaction to a suspiciously timed outbreak -- is because, after an uninterrupted winning streak for decades, the establishment is losing. This mother of all false flag operations is their desperate means of self-defense.Linked from Instapundit.
Wednesday, April 08, 2020
AFTER THE HYSTERIA DIES, what rough beast slouches towards Bethlehem to be born?
NOW BACK TO WHERE I LEFT OFF IN MARCH....
When you only have a hammer, everything is a nail.These posts were written nearly a month ago, but in my view remain unassailable.
There is a war going on. But it is not a war against the latest iteration of the coronavirus.
Coronavirus Lunacy: take a deep breath, society.
There's a price to be paid for this lunacy and lemming-like compliance. Doesn't nature require that we exercise our immune systems? Is it really wise to let certain things atrophy? What of boredom's effect on overeating? Lying on the couch? Boredom's effect on existing depression, and its contribution to new depression? Same for unemployment's effects. Layoffs are not only going to hurt people; they will kill them. Don't worry: the government is riding to the rescue with $1,000 checks for everyone. How long does that shot in the arm last? Weeks? A month? Then what? Besides, people like having a sense of purpose. Handouts do not give anyone purpose; handouts destroy character and work ethic. And the federal government is 24 trillion dollars in debt. What are we doing but encouraging sloth, despondency, and an attitude of just giving up? Are we Americans, or aren't we?This 'cure' is worse than the disease.
I'm not saying caution is not warranted. It is. Education is not just good, but abundantly necessary. Wash your hands. Sneeze into your elbow. Use sanitary wipes. Clean surfaces. If you feel sick — whether your symptoms are a close match or not — get tested in a timely fashion.
But for goodness's sake, don't crash my economy. Don't destroy my jazz clubs. Don't close schools. (What are we telling our kids? Be wimpy about life's challenges? Don't be self-sufficient? Don't be strong?) Don't close my restaurants. Don't close my libraries. Don't close my coffee shops. Don't make otherwise robust people live as if dead to avoid a "death" that won't come even if they get this bug.
ABSURD ... on steroids.
Ufortunately (or possibly fortunately) I couldn't get to Lowe's - the closest one is in Murphy, NC, and Murphy is closed to Georgians....
Ufortunately (or possibly fortunately) I couldn't get to Lowe's - the closest one is in Murphy, NC, and Murphy is closed to Georgians....
Tuesday, April 07, 2020
SATIRE IS SO UNSERIOUS: Snopes recommends shutting down the internet to prevent the spread of satire.
The wokescolds would, too, if they could.
The wokescolds would, too, if they could.
LIBERALISM ISN’T EVEN HYPOCRISY. "It’s just one giant lie wrapped in a scam and dipped in unadulterated bullSchiff."
WUHAN FLU [CORONAVIRUS] UPDATE for April 7, 2020. Here's tonight's update.
The trends on reported cases remain pretty much the same, although I am noticing a very slight downward trend using higher-order polynomial fits to the data. Possibly that mid-April 'peak' is approaching ... or not.
The projected deaths chart is all over the ballpark again; one day it's high, low the next. Because of the high variability I had to use a 4th order polynomial fit to get a guesstimate that seems to make some sense. This one is a clear case of the tail wagging the dog, but since the cumulative numbers seem to be falling along the projection, it's probably a reasonable guesstimate.
And just to be consistent, 99.40% of Americans are still virus-free.
The trends on reported cases remain pretty much the same, although I am noticing a very slight downward trend using higher-order polynomial fits to the data. Possibly that mid-April 'peak' is approaching ... or not.
The projected deaths chart is all over the ballpark again; one day it's high, low the next. Because of the high variability I had to use a 4th order polynomial fit to get a guesstimate that seems to make some sense. This one is a clear case of the tail wagging the dog, but since the cumulative numbers seem to be falling along the projection, it's probably a reasonable guesstimate.
And just to be consistent, 99.40% of Americans are still virus-free.
Monday, April 06, 2020
WUHAN FLU [CORONAVIRUS] UPDATE for April 6, 2020. Here's tonight's update.
The trend lines for reported cases seem to be remaining stable, definitely not exponential, but still increasing steadily. The same is true for death rates, although the U.S. population curve does seem to be flattening somewhat.
The projected death curve is looking more and more likely to be following HealthData.Org's best-case (low) projection; in fact I've seen several news stories today that the projections are being refined and lowered. And better news, I'm also seeing stories indicating that there will likely not be shortages of hospital ICU beds, ventilators, etc.
As of tonight 99.45% of the U.S. is still not infected.
The trend lines for reported cases seem to be remaining stable, definitely not exponential, but still increasing steadily. The same is true for death rates, although the U.S. population curve does seem to be flattening somewhat.
The projected death curve is looking more and more likely to be following HealthData.Org's best-case (low) projection; in fact I've seen several news stories today that the projections are being refined and lowered. And better news, I'm also seeing stories indicating that there will likely not be shortages of hospital ICU beds, ventilators, etc.
As of tonight 99.45% of the U.S. is still not infected.
Sunday, April 05, 2020
SPRING FORWARD, 3RD WEEK: Here are the pictures, starting with the usual pond view from the deck. Nothing much has changed over the week. The 'butterfly bush' has lost most of its flowers, and is beginning to show some leaves. The trees are still mostly bare; some buds evident but not much else.
Our road hasn't yet shown much interest in spring - some buds, not much else. However our next-door neighbor has a beautiful pair of tall, cylindrical (whatever) trees that have fully bloomed out in just the last two days.
Here's the house, taken about halfway down the path to the pond. I'm still hopeful that when summer finally arrives I'll still be able to see the house. Hopeful, but not overly so.
And finally, the pond. Last week I had a picture showing all the brush along the pond path and expressed a desire to remove it. Well, I did - mostly. Still a lot of cut brush down there to be moved to the 'future mulch' pile above, but that should be finished off tomorrow.
Until next week; last week's pictures are here. Note that I did in fact attack that pond-side brush.
Our road hasn't yet shown much interest in spring - some buds, not much else. However our next-door neighbor has a beautiful pair of tall, cylindrical (whatever) trees that have fully bloomed out in just the last two days.
Here's the house, taken about halfway down the path to the pond. I'm still hopeful that when summer finally arrives I'll still be able to see the house. Hopeful, but not overly so.
And finally, the pond. Last week I had a picture showing all the brush along the pond path and expressed a desire to remove it. Well, I did - mostly. Still a lot of cut brush down there to be moved to the 'future mulch' pile above, but that should be finished off tomorrow.
Until next week; last week's pictures are here. Note that I did in fact attack that pond-side brush.
WUHAN FLU [CORONAVIRUS] UPDATE for April 5, 2020. Here's tonight's update.
The 'death chart' (below) has gone back to at least somewhat believable, leading me to think it was simply that I updated the chart later than normal yesterday. Deaths yesterday were above the worst-case (red) line; today deaths are below the best-case (green) line and the 'projection' (a best-fit 3rd degree polynomial is neatly between HealthData.org's most likely and best-case projections.
For the record 99.49% of the U.S. is still coronavirus-free.
The 'death chart' (below) has gone back to at least somewhat believable, leading me to think it was simply that I updated the chart later than normal yesterday. Deaths yesterday were above the worst-case (red) line; today deaths are below the best-case (green) line and the 'projection' (a best-fit 3rd degree polynomial is neatly between HealthData.org's most likely and best-case projections.
For the record 99.49% of the U.S. is still coronavirus-free.
Saturday, April 04, 2020
HERE'S A QUESTION that needs answering. With all the angst about coronavirus, I went to the preening popinjay (CDC) website for some statistics on seasonal flu. It's hard to find; I had to Google '2020 U.S. seasonal flu estimate' to find the data on the CDC site.
The CDC estimates that from the 1st of October 2019 through the 28th of May 2020 there have been between 24 and 63 thousand seasonal flu deaths; there have been 7,077 coronavirus deaths during roughly the same period (if you accept the Fox News estimate earlier this evening).
SO WHY IN BLOODY HELL is our Deep State ruling class determined to destroy the U.S. economy over a disease that has killed fewer than 10 thousand people and ho-hum about a disease that routinely kills 4 to 9 times as many people every year?
The CDC estimates that from the 1st of October 2019 through the 28th of May 2020 there have been between 24 and 63 thousand seasonal flu deaths; there have been 7,077 coronavirus deaths during roughly the same period (if you accept the Fox News estimate earlier this evening).
SO WHY IN BLOODY HELL is our Deep State ruling class determined to destroy the U.S. economy over a disease that has killed fewer than 10 thousand people and ho-hum about a disease that routinely kills 4 to 9 times as many people every year?
WUHAN FLU [CORONAVIRUS] UPDATE for April 4, 2020. Here's tonight's update. Note the scale change on the Reported Cases chart.
There's something fishy in Denmark on the below chart. The Coronavirus Dashboard website shows over 8700 U.S. deaths today, up 1300 since yesterday, yet nowhere else can I find such a steep increase (Fox News is only reporting 7077 at 10:30 pm). If I use the Dashboard number, the death rate (plus signs on the chart) is on the high projection; if I use the Fox News number, the death rate is well below the the low projection (almost zero). Something's wrong - I don't trust either number.
Moreover, I'm seeing (here) that hospitalizations, and presumably deaths, are actually declining in the so-called hot spots. That's more in line with my own experience surfing the web.
Maybe some explanation tomorrow.
There's something fishy in Denmark on the below chart. The Coronavirus Dashboard website shows over 8700 U.S. deaths today, up 1300 since yesterday, yet nowhere else can I find such a steep increase (Fox News is only reporting 7077 at 10:30 pm). If I use the Dashboard number, the death rate (plus signs on the chart) is on the high projection; if I use the Fox News number, the death rate is well below the the low projection (almost zero). Something's wrong - I don't trust either number.
Moreover, I'm seeing (here) that hospitalizations, and presumably deaths, are actually declining in the so-called hot spots. That's more in line with my own experience surfing the web.
Maybe some explanation tomorrow.
Friday, April 03, 2020
Thursday, April 02, 2020
WUHAN FLU [CORONAVIRUS] UPDATE for April 2, 2020. Without comment tonight [note scale change]:
Now a new addition:
Here's a new chart taken from HealthData.Org. It's their projection of daily U.S. deaths from the coronavirus over the next month, assuming (their assumption, not mine) strict social distancing.The data points in black are actuals, taken from HealthData and the Coronavirus Dashboard, through April first. The dashed lines are HealthData's projections for April, worst-case in red, best case in green.
On the right (secondary scale) I've plotted cumulative deaths from their projected data. The diamond points are actuals through April first.
I'll be plotting the coronavirus actuals over the projections as the week proceeds to see how well -- or poorly -- the projections fare.
Update: 99.64% of the U.S. population is still virus-free.
Now a new addition:
Here's a new chart taken from HealthData.Org. It's their projection of daily U.S. deaths from the coronavirus over the next month, assuming (their assumption, not mine) strict social distancing.The data points in black are actuals, taken from HealthData and the Coronavirus Dashboard, through April first. The dashed lines are HealthData's projections for April, worst-case in red, best case in green.
On the right (secondary scale) I've plotted cumulative deaths from their projected data. The diamond points are actuals through April first.
I'll be plotting the coronavirus actuals over the projections as the week proceeds to see how well -- or poorly -- the projections fare.
Update: 99.64% of the U.S. population is still virus-free.
Wednesday, April 01, 2020
MR. PRESIDENT, re-open the economy. We will wash our hands. Promise.
As I have said before -- over and over ... and over again -- with Democrats, it's all about control.
As I have said before -- over and over ... and over again -- with Democrats, it's all about control.
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