2012: IT'S 1984 AGAIN. In 1984 Ronald Reagan beat Walter Mondale 59%-41%, carrying 49 of the 50 states.

My trend analysis of the Rasmussen Presidential Approval Index predicts that on election day 2012, only 17% of the electorate will 'strongly approve' Obama's performance; 46% will strongly disapprove, and 37% will neither strongly approve nor strongly disapprove.

If that middle third of the electorate breaks 2:1 for Obama (as the prior trending suggests it might), the election will be 58-42 for Romney.