Manassas, VA at 7:30 am.
Monday, March 02, 2009
Sunday, March 01, 2009
NO MORE PRESIDENT EEYORE?
Mike Baker returns:
Don’t limit yourself to my excerpts – read it all.
It’s the damndest thing… one minute you’re in the land of the free, brave and capitalist…the next, in the words of the now famous Newsweek cover, we’re all socialists now.
~~~~
Pillory big business, tax anyone making more than you do, redistribute assets, toss in a little protectionist rhetoric… this is the change we’ve been waiting for? My parents got this change back in the early 1930’s and it led to another depression in the late 1930’s.
~~~~
President Obama has spent the past couple of weeks explaining that the sky is falling. Tuesday night during his Not-a-State-of-the-Union Address to the nation, he sounded more hopeful and optimistic. This is because polls, pundits and now advisors are telling him that he can’t be President Eeyore anymore.
Don’t limit yourself to my excerpts – read it all.
BON APPETIT
Hmm. A better analogy, I think, is that food is the progressives' new religion, and its high priest and priestesses are the Nanny Police.
THE SIX TRILLION DOLLAR MAN
Mark Steyn at his best: "Of course, when Barack Obama is accused of creating his Six-Trillion-Dollar Man “because I believe in bigger government” he denies it: “I don’t,” he says flatly. This is like Clark Kent telling Lois Lane he’s not Superman: They just look a bit similar when he removes his glasses. Likewise, any connection between Obama and a Big Government behemoth swallowing everything in sight is entirely coincidental."
I AM AN AMERICAN
I am an American. I will not give up my liberty.
I am an American. I will not give up my liberty.
I am an American. I will not give up my liberty.
I WILL NOT GIVE UP MY LIBERTY
I’ve been skimming back through the blogs I frequent, looking for a post I vaguely recall applauding the “tea party” while expressing the concern that the protests were inchoate and lacked a common theme.
The New Pamphleteers expressed the concern this way:
I agree that, initially at least, the concern was valid. But after attending the Washington DC “tea party” I believe there is beginning to be an overarching grand theme. It begins with Rush Limbaugh’s “first address to the Nation” at CPAC last night, where Limbaugh said in effect that “ when I look out here, I don’t see (insert your favorite victim group), I see Americans” and it ends with Rick Santelli’s CNBC rant, somewhat misleadingly described as an “I’m mad as hell ...” speech.
The point is, there is a “Grand Theme” for the tea parties in those moments.
I AM AN AMERICAN. From Rush Limbaugh. It matters not my ethnicity, religion, economic status, political leanings, or geographic origin; I am an American, first, foremost, and always.
I AM A TAXPAYER. My contribution. As a taxpayer, I have an investment in America, and don’t want that investment frittered away to the point that the United States becomes a debtors’ prison for my children and grandchildren.
I AM MAD AS HELL. From Rick Santelli. His complaint was with the mortgage buyout, but it’s larger than that. As a taxpayer and part-owner in America, I’m angered by what is essentially a “hostile takeover” of my country. And, yes, I’m mad as hell about that.
And the Grand Theme, I believe, is best expressed in this picture I took at the DC “tea party.”
I WILL NOT GIVE UP MY LIBERTY.
The New Pamphleteers expressed the concern this way:
What is the target of our protest? Are we protesting the President and Congress for an act already passed, or are we petitioning our state and local governments to refuse to accept the stimulus money?
What do we do if these protests do not result in the change in policies we are asking for? What happens next?
Make no mistake, once a movement like this has begun, it will, sooner or later, have to answer these difficult questions or risk failure. Now is the seed-time of liberty, and the steps we take and the words we use will either be recalled triumphantly by our grandchildren, or seen as a sad charade conducted by children who could not muster the strength and conviction of their ancestors.
I agree that, initially at least, the concern was valid. But after attending the Washington DC “tea party” I believe there is beginning to be an overarching grand theme. It begins with Rush Limbaugh’s “first address to the Nation” at CPAC last night, where Limbaugh said in effect that “ when I look out here, I don’t see (insert your favorite victim group), I see Americans” and it ends with Rick Santelli’s CNBC rant, somewhat misleadingly described as an “I’m mad as hell ...” speech.
The point is, there is a “Grand Theme” for the tea parties in those moments.
I AM AN AMERICAN. From Rush Limbaugh. It matters not my ethnicity, religion, economic status, political leanings, or geographic origin; I am an American, first, foremost, and always.
I AM A TAXPAYER. My contribution. As a taxpayer, I have an investment in America, and don’t want that investment frittered away to the point that the United States becomes a debtors’ prison for my children and grandchildren.
I AM MAD AS HELL. From Rick Santelli. His complaint was with the mortgage buyout, but it’s larger than that. As a taxpayer and part-owner in America, I’m angered by what is essentially a “hostile takeover” of my country. And, yes, I’m mad as hell about that.
And the Grand Theme, I believe, is best expressed in this picture I took at the DC “tea party.”
I WILL NOT GIVE UP MY LIBERTY.
Saturday, February 28, 2009
SOCIAL SECURITY REVISITED
In January Allan Sloan, senior editor at large of Fortune magazine wrote about privatization of Social Security:
Sloan argues that’s bad, because
Those quotes interest me, since I first wrote about privatizing Social Security here. In that post I used my own FICA tax history to show that I would have gotten a much better return on the FICA withholdings if they had simply invested in the stocks comprising the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the accumulation annuitized on retirement.
In a later post, I looked at John and James Doe, identical twins with the same minimum wage history, one invested in the DJIA and the other invested in Social Security over a 50 year period. On retirement, James, who had invested in the stock market, had a retirement income 31% greater than that of his brother.
Both of Sloan’s statements above are true, of course, but they are beside the point. The real question is this: Even if the market goes south – way south – just before retirement, are you still better off than you would be under Social Security?
The question isn’t academic to me; I’m in exactly that position. So I reopened my original investigation using today’s market drop to see what happens. Here’s the methodology.
I first calculated my Social Security income starting in January 2011, the year following my 66th birthday. I used the detailed ANYPIA calculator available from the Social Security website with my FICA contribution history. It’s accurate to within a few pennies.
I then calculated what the growth of my FICA contributions would have been had they been invested in DJIA stocks in the year the FICA contribution was made, dating from the first contribution in 1962 through the 32% market drop in 2008.
For 2009 and 2010 I used FICA contributions based on current salary, and assumed that in 2009 the market will drop an additional 16% and recover in 2010 to grow at a modest 6%.
These assumptions are roughly equivalent to market conditions during the recession of 1973-74.
I then converted the accumulated growth to a joint life with 10-year minimum payout annuity to get the equivalent Social Security payout. An annuity calculator is available here.
The results? If only the employee half of the FICA contributions had been invested in the stock market, in 2011 I would take home 20.6% more than my predicted Social Security income. If both employee and employer contributions were invested, my take-home in 2011 would be a whopping 41.2% more than Social Security.
But, you say, Social Security benefits will always be there. Sorry, not so. Social Security is already in trouble; it’s running out of money and the demographics are wrong for a tax-increase solution. I’ll probably be okay, but my children and grandchildren will not.
The truth is that the stock market will always be there; Social Security may not.
If your year-end 401(k) statement made you feel like barfing, I have one consolation for you: it could be worse. How's that possible, given how horrible last year was for investors? Simple: If you're not close to retirement, you've got time to recover.
If, however, you were forced to buy a lifetime annuity with your current balance - when you buy such an annuity, you trade your cash for a series of guaranteed payments for the rest of your life - you'd be making your loss permanent.
Sloan argues that’s bad, because
Social Security benefits, of course, are set by a formula that isn't affected by markets moving up, down or sideways.
Those quotes interest me, since I first wrote about privatizing Social Security here. In that post I used my own FICA tax history to show that I would have gotten a much better return on the FICA withholdings if they had simply invested in the stocks comprising the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the accumulation annuitized on retirement.
In a later post, I looked at John and James Doe, identical twins with the same minimum wage history, one invested in the DJIA and the other invested in Social Security over a 50 year period. On retirement, James, who had invested in the stock market, had a retirement income 31% greater than that of his brother.
Both of Sloan’s statements above are true, of course, but they are beside the point. The real question is this: Even if the market goes south – way south – just before retirement, are you still better off than you would be under Social Security?
The question isn’t academic to me; I’m in exactly that position. So I reopened my original investigation using today’s market drop to see what happens. Here’s the methodology.
I first calculated my Social Security income starting in January 2011, the year following my 66th birthday. I used the detailed ANYPIA calculator available from the Social Security website with my FICA contribution history. It’s accurate to within a few pennies.
I then calculated what the growth of my FICA contributions would have been had they been invested in DJIA stocks in the year the FICA contribution was made, dating from the first contribution in 1962 through the 32% market drop in 2008.
For 2009 and 2010 I used FICA contributions based on current salary, and assumed that in 2009 the market will drop an additional 16% and recover in 2010 to grow at a modest 6%.
These assumptions are roughly equivalent to market conditions during the recession of 1973-74.
I then converted the accumulated growth to a joint life with 10-year minimum payout annuity to get the equivalent Social Security payout. An annuity calculator is available here.
The results? If only the employee half of the FICA contributions had been invested in the stock market, in 2011 I would take home 20.6% more than my predicted Social Security income. If both employee and employer contributions were invested, my take-home in 2011 would be a whopping 41.2% more than Social Security.
But, you say, Social Security benefits will always be there. Sorry, not so. Social Security is already in trouble; it’s running out of money and the demographics are wrong for a tax-increase solution. I’ll probably be okay, but my children and grandchildren will not.
The truth is that the stock market will always be there; Social Security may not.
ANOTHER SLOGAN FOR "TEA PARTY" GOERS
I WILL NOT GIVE UP MY FREEDOM
Courtesy of Rush Limbaugh at CPAC 2009
Courtesy of Rush Limbaugh at CPAC 2009
TEA PARTY II
My contribution to the next round of tea parties:
If anyone uses it, please send me a picture.
If anyone uses it, please send me a picture.
Friday, February 27, 2009
DC TEA PARTY
I stopped by the Washington DC "Tea Party" anti-stimulus protest at Lafayette Park across from the White House today. There were about 500 protestors - not bad, I think, for a hastily put together protest organized over the internet. Michelle Malkin of Hot Air and Roger Simon of Pajamas Media were there, as was Reason TV. I was impressed by the quality of the crowd - these were serious people, not the usual clowns you see at most protest rallies.
Here are some photos from the protest.
The protest begins with the first speaker.
"Porkulus" - the protest mascot.
Here are some signs. Are you unhappy with your "change?" Don't worry, soon you won't have two nickels to rub together.
Are you better off than you were four weeks ago?
Michelle Malkin following her speech to the crowd.
My neighbor bought a big house and all I got was the payment.
War on achievement is not the answer.
Yes, we care. A reference to Senator Shumer's (Pork-IL) claim that Americans don't care about the "little bit" of pork in the stimulus bill.
Their mother kindly let me take a picture of this young gentleman and lady. Thank you!
It's probably safe to say he's not working too hard.
The plan for tomorrow.
And a final thought about what the protest is all about.
Here are some photos from the protest.
The protest begins with the first speaker.
"Porkulus" - the protest mascot.
Here are some signs. Are you unhappy with your "change?" Don't worry, soon you won't have two nickels to rub together.
Are you better off than you were four weeks ago?
Michelle Malkin following her speech to the crowd.
My neighbor bought a big house and all I got was the payment.
War on achievement is not the answer.
Yes, we care. A reference to Senator Shumer's (Pork-IL) claim that Americans don't care about the "little bit" of pork in the stimulus bill.
Their mother kindly let me take a picture of this young gentleman and lady. Thank you!
It's probably safe to say he's not working too hard.
The plan for tomorrow.
And a final thought about what the protest is all about.
ARE YOU HAPPY NOW, MR. OBAMA?
My daughter had a job, not a great job, but a good job: a decent salary, life insurance, health insurance, a 401k. She had already taken a few steps up the ladder to success.
But her job was dependent in part on “the rich” and the “greedy capitalists” you and your Democrat colleagues so successfully demonized.
Now she doesn’t have a job - and neither do 15 of her co-workers.
And by the way, my wife and I will be staying in the workforce for another few years, denying those behind us on the ladder the opportunity to move up a few rungs.
Are you happy now?
But her job was dependent in part on “the rich” and the “greedy capitalists” you and your Democrat colleagues so successfully demonized.
Now she doesn’t have a job - and neither do 15 of her co-workers.
And by the way, my wife and I will be staying in the workforce for another few years, denying those behind us on the ladder the opportunity to move up a few rungs.
Are you happy now?
Thursday, February 26, 2009
NO ENERGY FROM OIL SHALE?
Interior Decision on Oil Shale Locks Away American Energy Resource Larger than Total Reserves of Middle East. This is simply hard to believe. We'll pay billions for Saudi oil, but not unlock our own resources simply because it "might destroy our environment."
Here's what sticks in my craw.
As an engineer, I'm reasonably confident that American technonogy, dollar for dollar and BTU for BTU, can extract energy from the ground with less environmental damage than can any other nation on Earth.
If the environmental lobby had even an ounce of common sense, they'd be demanding that we "drill here, drill now."
But no, America is their back yard, you see.
Here's what sticks in my craw.
As an engineer, I'm reasonably confident that American technonogy, dollar for dollar and BTU for BTU, can extract energy from the ground with less environmental damage than can any other nation on Earth.
If the environmental lobby had even an ounce of common sense, they'd be demanding that we "drill here, drill now."
But no, America is their back yard, you see.
PRAY FOR IRAQ
News reporting is that President Obama will announce a deadline of August 2010 for a complete pullout of combat troops from Iraq.
Pray for the Iraqis ... they'll need all the help they can get.
Pray for the Iraqis ... they'll need all the help they can get.
A MODEST PROPOSAL
The Obama administration is planning to finance the "stimulus" by selling Treasury bonds to China.
I have an idea. It has been a time-honored American tradition to "cut out the middleman" by selling directly to the customer. GEICO does it; Amazon.com does it; Craig's List does it. Why don't we?
Sell our personal bonds to China, that is. Cut out the Treasury Department entirely, and save our children a little money.
I have an idea. It has been a time-honored American tradition to "cut out the middleman" by selling directly to the customer. GEICO does it; Amazon.com does it; Craig's List does it. Why don't we?
Sell our personal bonds to China, that is. Cut out the Treasury Department entirely, and save our children a little money.
A TRILLION HERE, A TRILLION THERE ...
Back in the 1960's, the late Senator Everett Dirksen (R, IL) was supposed to have said "A billion here, a billion there, and pretty soon you're talking real money." Today the number is a trillion, but the meaning is the same.
It is interesting to note that as an analogy for growth of government, the increase from a billion to a trillion in roughly 45 years corresponds to a growth rate of nearly 17%.
Big government, anyone?
It is interesting to note that as an analogy for growth of government, the increase from a billion to a trillion in roughly 45 years corresponds to a growth rate of nearly 17%.
Big government, anyone?
HEARD ON THE RADIO
The Rocky Mountain News is going out of business, with the last newspaper to be published tomorrow. The reason given for going out of business: "this extraordinary economic decline."
Bull.
The reason the Rocky Mountain News went out of business is simple: it, like so many others in the news media, deliberately and with malice aforethought chose to advocate rather than report.
Now they're paying the price. Good riddance.
Bull.
The reason the Rocky Mountain News went out of business is simple: it, like so many others in the news media, deliberately and with malice aforethought chose to advocate rather than report.
Now they're paying the price. Good riddance.
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