Tuesday, September 01, 2020

WUHAN FLU [CORONAVIRUS] UPDATE for September 1, 2020:


It remains mostly same old, same old but trends look good. Deaths are stable at about 1000/day; but the trend is now clearly moving down. In Georgia, where statistics are accumulated by actual date of death (not date reported to health authorities), the numbers are sharply down from their August 7th peak.

My estimate of the death rate has started climb at bit, now at 0.0571% from its previous low of 0.0549%. The reason, though, is that I now use the current U.S. population for my divisor, since the estimate I was using of those exposed exceeded the U.S. population on August 28th. I'll continue to track this new statistic for a while to see if it proves useful.

The coronavirus outbreak in Georgia appears over. Confirmed (not newly reported) cases peaked on July 11th, and the rolling average is now one fifth of the peak. The rolling average of daily deaths peaked August 7th; and is now 1 sixth of that peak.

Hospitalizations have been steadily declining since Aug 4th and are currently down by a third.

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