Sunday, September 07, 2008

AVERAGE ISN’T GOOD ENOUGH

In a Los Angeles Times opinion piece, Sam Harris, a founder of the Reason Project takes issue with the selection of Sarah Palin as the Vice President nominee of the Republican Party.

In his opening shot, Harris claims that according to Social Security actuarial tables Mr. McCain has a 10% likelihood of not surviving his first term in office. a 27% percent chance of not surviving his second term, and that therefore an “average” (meaning unqualified) Sarah Palin could become president. Here’s Harris at his worst:

Let me put it plainly: If you want someone just like you to be president of the United States, or even vice president, you deserve whatever dysfunctional society you get. You deserve to be poor, to see the environment despoiled, to watch your children receive a fourth-rate education and to suffer as this country wages -- and loses -- both necessary and unnecessary wars.

Well.

Lets apply some “reason” to Mr. Harris’ statements.

First, the actuarial tables. Yes, in any given year a person has a certain percentage risk of dying. And that factor does increase year to year. But the relevant statistic is not percentage of risk; it is life expectancy. According to the standard mortality tables, a 72-year old man has a life expectancy of 14 years. Last I checked, two terms in office is only 8 years, and so when he retires after two full terms in office, Mr. McCain will still have a life expectancy of 9 years. Imagine that.

Second, Sarah Palin is average? AVERAGE? Oh, come now, Mr. Harris. Mrs. Palin is far, far from average. Average people don’t become mayors of towns, even small towns. Average people don’t become Governors of states, even small states.

According to its web site, the Reason Project (I’m quoting here) is … "devoted to spreading scientific knowledge and secular values in society. The foundation draws on the talents of prominent and creative thinkers in a wide range of disciplines to encourage critical thinking and erode the influence of dogmatism, superstition, and bigotry in our world."

It's failing. Perhaps because it isn’t “average.”

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