Saturday, April 11, 2020

WUHAN FLU [CORONAVIRUS] UPDATE for April 11, 2020 [note scale changes.]


Reported cases and death rates are both showing clear signs of flattening; much more so for the death rate curves. The trend lines are all 4th order polynomials, so they're very sensitive to variations and can change significantly over a day. That said, however, the decline does seem to be (finally) real.


The projected death curves are also showing significant declines (note the cumulative curve - diamonds are the actuals). But also note that the trend line has flipped from up to down since yesterday, so there's still too much variation in the data for it to have much meaning.

Meanwhile 99.19% of Americans are still coronavirus free assuming the estimated total infections is somewhat accurate.



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