Tuesday, June 19, 2012

AMERICA’S TAX REFUGEES: citizens flee states with big government. The migration map referred to is here; pick a state, a start date and an end date, and you can find out how many people and how much income moved to and from that state, from and to every other state, in the time period you've chosen.

I chose to look at the net migration data for the years 2000-2009; then for 2001 (President Bush's first year in office) and finally 2009 (President Obama's first year in office). Over the 10-year period 2000-2009, the top ten states in out-migration were, in order, New York, California, Michigan, Illinois, Ohio, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Louisana, Pennsylvania, and Connecticut. Total out-migration was 2,173,604 households. All but Louisana (solid Republican) and Ohio (tossup) were designated as solid Democrat on the Washington Post's electoral prediction map.

The top ten states in in-migration were Florida, Texas, Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada, South Carolina, Tennessee, Colorado, and Washington. Total in-migration was 2,090,493 households. Of the top in-migration states, 5 were designated as solid Republican, one was solid Democrat, and the remaining 4 were designated as tossups.

Out of curiosity, I looked at the net migration data for each President's first year in office (there is only Obama's first year data available).

During Bush's first term, Connecticut and Louisana were replaced by Iowa (tossup) and Indiana (red) in the out-migration data. Virginia (tossup), Oregon (blue), and Maryland (blue) replaced South Carolina, Washington, and Tennessee in the top ten for net in-migration.

During Obama's first term, Minnesota (blue), Wisconsin (tossup), and Indiana (red) moved into the top ten for out-migration, replacing Pennsylvania, Massachusetts, and Louisana (which moved from a top ten out migration state to a top ten in-migration state). Oklahoma (red), Virginia (tossup), and Louisana (red) moved into the top ten for in-migration.

The single most interesting point is that the migration pattern appears to be largely independent of the President/administration. At least 7 of the top ten in both in-migration and out-migration didn't change with respect to who was in office (there is obviously more data from the Bush presidency than from the Obama presidency). The migration pattern appears to be most strongly influenced by state rather than federal government: blue states to red or tossup states.

Here's the electoral map I used courtesy of the Washington Post (assuming it will load correctly for you; it randomly chooses to do me evil....).

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