FIVE WAYS to judge if ObamaCare is really working. Talking Points Memo presents the optimistic case. Here are my thoughts.

Who signs up for insurance?

It's well understood that a significant number of the so-called 'young and healthy' must sign up in order for ObamaCare to succeed. TPM is optimistic, but the California signups and the Administration's refusal to provide demographic data from the Healthcare.gov experience suggests that TPM's optimism is indeed optimistic.

How affordable is that insurance?

The continuing anecdotal evidence suggests that 'sticker shock' is at least as bad as predicted.

Do people get to keep their doctor, as Obama promised?

Anecdotal evidence again suggests not, as do the much more restrictive insurance networks. In my own case, our family practicioner is moving to a concierge practice in January.

How competitive are the marketplaces?

Anecdotal, but in Prince William County, the answer is not competitive. The last time I was able to check the exchange, there were only about three insurance companies and perhaps 10-12 offerings. Only one was a PPO; the rest were HMO's.

Will more states expand Medicaid?

TPM is optomistic, citing Medicaid's initial rollout in the 60's, but I doubt ObamaCare has 10 years to overcome those initial doubts.

Conclusion: ObamaCare isn't working; it will collapse and eventually be repealed.