Monday, June 25, 2012

JONATHON TURLEY suggested packing the Supreme Court by increasing the number of Justices from nine to nineteen in order to 'more democratically' interpret the Constitution (never mind that groups comprising more than eight or nine people allow cliques and sub-teams to form, each with their own agenda, which can derail the outcome).

Let's assume for a moment every Supreme Court can have only two decisions (Constitutional/Not Constitutional), that every Justice is independent (no cliques), each Justice has exactly the same probability of coming to the correct (Constitutional) decision. Then the binomial distribution can easily be used to evaluate the Court's likelihood of coming to a correct decision as a function of the size of the Court and the likelihood of each Justice coming to the correct decision.

Given the number of 5-4 decisions, we can roughly estimate the Justices' likelihood of a correct decision (in 'hard' cases) as greater than 5/9ths, or about 60%. If so, then a Court of 9 Justices will have a 'correct decision rate' of about 73% in the 'hard' cases, and a Court of 19 Justices will correctly decide 81% of the time, a difference of 8%.

In 'easy decision' cases where the Justices' individual correct decision rises (to say 80%), then the probability of the Court making the correct decision rises to 98.0% and 99.8% respectively.

This assumes that no cliques form, which will almost certainly lower the larger Court's effectiveness.

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