Today's update is more of the same (scale changes again, though). The flattening of the reported cases plot does appear to be real, though miniscule. The death rate curves do tend to show a more distinct downward curve, but both are still increasing more rapidly than I would have thought. My guess is that there are probably two factors at work. The first is that I suspect the infected population estimate is too low. I use the standard 80% rule for infected but unreported, and I suspect that's too low given the low reported numbers in the young & healthy categories. That would lower the overall death rates but not affect the slope of the rate curves. The increasing slope is, I suspect, an artifact of misreporting. Deaths are being attributed to coronavirus if the virus is present, even when the underlying cause is something different. I'm seeing more and more reporting of that kind on the internet every day.
It's still a case of the tail wagging the dog in the projected deaths chart. I think the trend line would stabilize about midway between the projected (blue) and low end (green) estimates if I could get a death count at a consistent time every day - a mere (1/10)th of 1% in total daily deaths can swing that trend line from green to red overnight.
In case you're wondering, an estimated 99.35% of Americans are still virus-free.
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