MORE ON SOCIAL SECURITY

Last November I posted a comment on my expected Social Security income, pointing out that it will be nowhere near the income I would have had I been able to invest the payroll tax money in a 401k-type retirement account. But my earnings put me at the higher end of the wage spectrum, and Social Security payouts are strongly biased toward the low-end wage earner, so I decided to do the identical calculation for a low-end wage earner to see if my results still held.

Consider the case of John Doe. Born January 1, 1941, John started working on January 1, 1957 at age 16 at a minimum-wage job, which he kept for the next 50 years, retiring on January 1, 2007 at the age of 66. John never earned more than the minimum wage.

Using the Social Security PIA (annuity) calculator, John will take home from the Social Security Administration the princely sum of $881/month for the rest of his life. Each year that amount will be adjusted for inflation.

Now consider the case of John’s twin brother, James. James also worked from the age of 16 to 66 at the same minimum-wage job as did John. The difference is that James was allowed to take his and his employer’s FICA (payroll) tax and invest it tax-free in the stocks that make up the Dow Jones Industrial index, which James faithfully did. On January 1, 2007, James had accumulated $224,468, which distributed on a 30-year payout at 5% interest, will give him a monthly income of $1,158.

Assume that John and James both live their expected lifetimes, which according to the United States Life Tables, 2003 is age 82 (16 years). When he dies, John will leave his heirs nothing. James will leave his heirs $144,531.

Explain to me again why Social Security shouldn’t be privatized. Better yet, explain to John why his identical twin James is taking home 30% more income in retirement.

[A note on methodology. I used the minimum hourly wage and FICA tax rates from 1957 to 2007 to compute John and James withholding taxes. The total (employee plus employer) withholding was $36,632 for each over 50 years. Each had a final (2007) salary of $12,168. John’s social security check represents 87% of his final salary; James’ annuity income represents 114% of his final salary. To estimate James’ heirs inheritance, I used the standard mortality tables which give an average expected lifespan for a 66-year-old male of 16 years. All of the data is easily available on the internet.]

TELL ME AGAIN WHY I SHOULD BELIEVE THE MSM

In a thinly disguised editorial in the Style (!) section, Washington Post writer Matthew Mosk attempts to debunk the already discredited “Obama is a Muslim” rumor.

Mosk’s vehicle is a profile of Danielle Allen’s quest to find the origin of the Obama email. Here’s Mosk:

“Allen studies the way voters in a democracy gather their information and act on what they learn. She was familiar, of course, with the false rumors of a secret love child that helped sink McCain’s White House bid in 2000, and the Swift boat attacks that did the same to Democrat John Kerry in 2004.”

Uh, Matthew, the “Swift boat attacks” were neither false nor rumors; in fact, Texas oilman T. Boone Pickens offered $1 million to anyone who could disprove any statement of fact made by the Swift boat veterans. As far as has been reported, he still has the money.

Are these “professional” journalists biased, incompetent, or just plain stupid?

HE’S BAACK ...

Via David Broder: “Sixteen years after he shook up American politics by launching an impromptu campaign for president, Ross Perot is about to dip a toe back into the public debates. And, yes, he's bringing his charts with him to make his point.”

Current polling seems to indicate that less than 1 percent of the voters believe the budget deficit one of the major problems facing the country. Perot disagrees. He’s created a website turning basic economic data into 35 well-made charts explaining how grim the long-term budget picture really is.

I’m still mulling over the data, but it’s clear that the 800-pound gorilla in the room is entitlement spending – Social Security and Medicare. Even my favorite hate, congressional pork, is a chimpanzee by comparison.

If you plan to vote in the upcoming Presidential elections, Perot’s “challenges” charts are a must-read.

OBAMA - A POST TURTLE?

Over at Don Surber’s place, commenter Harrison has an amusing observation [about Obama]:

“The old rancher said, “When you’re driving down a country road and you come across a fence post with a turtle balanced on top, that’s a ‘post turtle’.”

The old rancher saw a puzzled look on the doctor’s face, so he continued to explain.

“You know he didn’t get up there by himself, he doesn’t belong up there, he doesn’t know what to do while he is up there, and you just wonder what kind of a dumb ass put him up there to begin with.”

I couldn’t have said it better myself.

THE SINGULARITY

In my web-wanderings, I’ve noticed repeated references to the “Singularity.” In a rare burst of interest, I looked it up. Here’s what Wikipedia has to say:

The technological singularity is a hypothesised point in the future variously characterized by the technological creation of self-improving intelligence, unprecedentedly rapid technological progress, or some combination of the two.

Statistician I. J. Good first wrote of an "intelligence explosion", suggesting that if machines could even slightly surpass human intellect, they could improve their own designs in ways unseen by their designers, and thus recursively augment themselves into far greater intelligences. Vernor Vinge later called this event "the Singularity" as an analogy between the breakdown of modern physics near a gravitational singularity and the drastic change in society he argues would occur following an intelligence explosion.

My suspicion is that machine intelligence will soon surpass human intelligence, but not because machine intelligence is improving.

OBAMA'S QUALIFICATIONS

Barack Obama's qualifications for the presidency:


And no, I don't see any either.

[Thanks to Protein Wisdom and Instapundit for the idea.]

ENGINEERS HAVE HAIRY EARS

I've heard the phrase many times since my graduation as an electrical engineer back in 1968. I'd always thought that it was from Ogden Nash, but the origin is much older - and mostly unprintable. Most recently it has been associated with the Army's engineering battalions, dating back to (at least) WW I. Here are two of the least bawdy variants:

The Engineers have hairy ears,
they live in caves and ditches,
But when the trouble starts,
they fight like sons of witches

- An Anonymous WWI Soldier

The Engineers have hairy ears
They live in caves and ditches
They wipe their ass with broken glass
They're rugged sons of bitches.

- 36h Engineer Combat Regiment (WW II)
- Motto: RUGGED

There is some evidence that the origin may be an Ozark folksong, The Mountaineers, which is quite bawdy.

MARINES OR NAVY?

From John McCain FAQs at the Washington Times.

Q: Which is better, the Navy or the Marines?

A: The Marines are a department of the Navy. The Men's Department ...

Somehow, I think Senator McCain would laugh, then respectfully disagree.

DUELING BANJOS, ER, CATS

A MODEST SUGGESTION

Driving back from Connecticut a few weeks ago, we went through a number of construction zones where “fines are doubled” obstensibly to protect worker safety. Thinking about that as I peruse the news daily and see the number of Congress-critters accused of violating various and sundry laws, I thought “Why not?”

To protect average Americans, you and me, why not double the penalty for any elected official convicted of a crime; treble the penalty if they voted for the law they broke?

I doubt it would reduce the number of violations, but it might, just might, slow the growth of really dumb laws.

OBSCENE “PROFITS”

Charles Krauthammer is one of my favorite columnists, but he clearly lost it in his recent commentary (no link* but here’s the Post’s home page) advocating an increase in the gasoline tax. Krauthammer would increase the federal tax and use the receipts to either (a) reduce other taxes, or (b) fund research into alternative energy.

Let’s look at his proposal. Suppose we add a $1/gallon tax on $4/gallon gasoline, making the total cost at the pump $5/gallon. Assume 20% in “administrative expenses” and the Government has an 80 cent/gallon “profit” to distribute.

If we choose option (a) and refund the money via lower taxes, then I have an additional 80 cents (per gallon consumed) to spend. On what? Well, how about gasoline? Now I’m spending $4.20 for gasoline that used to cost $4.00.

Well, okay, let’s spend the money funding alternative energies. Um, like ethanol? Does anyone really believe that the Government is capable of picking an alternative energy winner? Please contact me if you do – I’ve got some wonderful deals on beachfront property in Arizona.

As an aside, isn’t it wonderful that the enviro-nitwits are railing against the oil companies “obscene profits” while advocating obscene profits for themselves in the form of various carbon taxes?

Amazing.

(* behind the Washington Post firewall, and I refuse to give them anything beyond my subscription money)

NATIONAL D-DAY MEMORIAL

We took a day trip to the National D-Day Memorial in Bedford, Virginia, in response to a Washington Times commentary by Stroube Smith. The Memorial gives a peek at what the landing at Normandy beach was like on June 6, 1944. Here's Smith:

"34 young men from Bedford landed in the first wave on Omaha Beach, all members of the First Battalion of the 116th Regiment, 29th Infantry Division, all but two of them in Company A.
Within minutes, 19 were killed. Three more died later in the campaign."

Per capita, Bedford was the hardest-hit community in the United States. Here are some photos from the Memorial.


The Overlord Arch is the dominant structure on the Memorial grounds.

Under and slightly behind the Arch is a rifle and helmet tribute to those who died that day.

The following two photos give some small idea of the landing and scaling the cliffs above the beach. The low wall in the back of the photo marks the memorial area; the plaques contain the names of all who died that day.


The Eisenhower memorial.

The Bedford Boysby Alex Kershaw is a history of the men from Bedford.

OUT & ABOUT

Why I love small towns - a diner in Culpeper, Virginia.


Smith Mountain Lake, in southwest Virginia.

The Shenandoah mountains from Interstate 81.