Sunday, May 19, 2019

MUCH ADO ABOUT VERY LITTLE: I've been watching the TV talking heads bloviating about whose economy - Obama's or Trump's - has been better, so I decided to look for myself using my personal economic data: my retirement savings accounts. I keep pretty good data, so I've been able to track the growth year-to-year, factoring out the deposits/withdrawals made during each year.

The results? My 'economy' grew at 5.9% the last two years of the Obama administration (2015-2016) and 9.3% during the first two years of the Trump administration (2017-2018).

So the Trump administration has been pretty good for my personal economy.

But here's the interesting part. It has also been very volatile, with a 2-year interval high of 18% and low of -12% (single year, +27% and -29% respectively). But when averaged over three administrations (Bush, Obama, and Trump) the numbers are 9% (2-year) and 10% (1-year), respectively. Within each individual administration the variance was within +/- 1%.

Moral of the story: the economy doesn't really care which administration is 'in charge' (possible exception - socialists, democratic or otherwise); it will adjust and continue humming along in it's usual 7-10 percent growth range as it has been doing for nearly 100 years.

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